In a groundbreaking analysis, the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) delves into the intricate details of India’s monsoon patterns, revealing noteworthy transformations in rainfall dynamics.
KEY FINDINGS
- A staggering 55% of tehsils witness a substantial surge of over 10% in southwest monsoon rainfall over the past decade (2012-2022). This surge extends to traditionally arid regions like Rajasthan, Gujarat, central Maharashtra, and parts of Tamil Nadu.
- Intensified Rainfall: Almost a quarter of these tehsils experience a remarkable rise of over 30% in rainfall during the June to September period.
- Climate Change Influence: The study attributes these fast-shifting and erratic monsoon patterns to the accelerating impact of climate change, emphasizing the urgency of climate action.
- Nature of Rainfall: The heightened rainfall in these tehsils predominantly comes from short-duration, heavy rainfall, contributing to concerns of flash floods.
- Flash Flood Risks: A substantial 31% of Indian tehsils witness an increase of four or more days of heavy rainfall annually, leading to heightened risks of flash floods.
- Climate Crisis Impact: With 2023 declared the hottest year globally, and 2024 expected to continue the trend, the study anticipates increased extreme weather events, amplifying the impact of the climate crisis.
MONSOONS AND INDIAN ECONOMY: AGRICULTURE AND BEYOND
- Agricultural Backbone: Monsoons are pivotal for India’s economy, especially in the agricultural sector, employing over half of the nation’s population.
- Varied Impacts: While only 11% of tehsils experience a decrease in southwest monsoon rainfall, these are concentrated in critical agricultural regions like the rain-fed Indo-Gangetic plain, northeast India, and the upper Himalayan region.
- Climate Vulnerability: These areas, crucial for India’s agricultural output, harbour fragile ecosystems susceptible to extreme climate events, posing a threat to food security.
CALL FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING: DR. VISHWAS CHITALE’S INSIGHT
Dr. Vishwas Chitale, Senior Programme Lead at CEEW, emphasizes the need for future-proofing the economy against erratic rainfall patterns. As India approaches the 2024 Union Budget, local-level climate risk assessments and action plans become imperative to safeguard lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure.
CEEW’s study provides a roadmap for understanding and addressing the evolving monsoon dynamics in India. With climate change exerting its influence, strategic planning at the local level emerges as the linchpin for effective climate action and disaster risk reduction. As monsoons continue to play a crucial role in shaping India’s socio-economic landscape, informed decisions and adaptive measures become paramount for a resilient and sustainable future.
