The landscape of international security shifted significantly at midnight GMT as the final remaining nuclear weapons control treaty between the United States and Russia officially expired. The expiration of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, commonly known as “New START,” has sparked widespread concern. Global leaders are worried about the potential for a fresh, unchecked arms race.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the end of the agreement as a “grave moment for international peace and security”. He has urgently called upon both Washington and Moscow to negotiate a successor framework without delay, emphasizing that the current risk of nuclear weapons being used is at its highest point in decades.
Signed in 2010, the New START treaty was a cornerstone of post-Cold War diplomacy. It provided a critical safety net by:
- Capping deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 for each nation.
- Mandating transparency through data transfers and notifications.
- Authorising on-site inspections to ensure mutual compliance.
Without these binding limits, Guterres warned that the world now faces a reality where the two countries possessing the “overwhelming majority of the global stockpile” are no longer constrained by legal oversight.
The Pattern of “Unravelling” Frameworks
The collapse of New START is not an isolated event; rather, it follows a worrying trend of decaying international agreements. Several other long-standing treaties that once helped maintain global stability have recently fallen by the wayside:
- The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Agreement: This pact previously eliminated shorter-range nuclear weapons in Europe.
- The Open Skies Treaty: This allowed signatories to conduct unarmed reconnaissance flights to monitor military movements.
- The Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty: This agreement limited the deployment of tanks, artillery, and troops between Russia and Nato forces.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Britain’s former head of the armed forces, recently warned that the very architecture designed to keep the world safe “now risks unravelling”. He identified the collapse of these treaties as one of the most dangerous aspects of the current global security climate.
Global Leaders Call for Action
Despite the expiration, there is a glimmer of hope. President Vladimir Putin and President Donald Trump have both previously expressed an appreciation for preventing “unchecked nuclear proliferation”. However, Secretary-General Guterres has urged them to move beyond rhetoric and “translate words into action”.
Furthermore, religious leaders have added their voices to the call for peace. Pope Leo recently urged both states to renew the treaty, stating that the current global situation necessitates doing everything possible to avert a new arms race.
“Alarm Everyone”: Medvedev Warns of Volatile New Era as Last US-Russia Nuclear Pact Expires
The final framework holding the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals in check has officially dissolved, prompting a rare and sobering warning from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. As the New START treaty expired at midnight GMT, Medvedev—who originally signed the pact in 2010—stated that its end should “alarm everyone.” This statement carries particular weight given his recent history of nuclear rhetoric, signaling a shift into a much more dangerous global security environment.
Russia and the US: Different Approaches to a Deadlock
Following the expiry, the Russian foreign ministry issued a statement clarifying that they no longer consider themselves bound by the treaty’s obligations or core provisions. Consequently, Moscow feels “free to choose” its next steps, though it claims it intends to act in a “balanced manner.” However, the ministry also warned that Russia remains prepared to take “decisive military-technical measures” to address potential threats to its national security.
In contrast, US President Donald Trump appeared less concerned about the immediate fallout. He recently remarked, “If it expires, it expires… We’ll just do a better agreement.” This nonchalant stance comes despite warnings from UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who described the moment as “grave” for international peace.
The “China Factor” and the European Power Struggle
A significant hurdle in negotiating a successor framework is the list of participants. Washington insists that any future arms control treaty must include China, as Beijing continues to rapidly expand its nuclear stockpile. This position has gained international support; German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul recently echoed this sentiment, stating that China must show it is “ready to show restraint” and invest in international trust.
Meanwhile, Russia has its own demands. Moscow argues that if the treaty is to be expanded, it should also include France and the UK, the two primary nuclear powers in Europe. These conflicting requirements have left negotiations at a standstill.
Technological Escalation: Hypersonic Missiles and “Golden Domes”
Experts suggest that a new arms race is not just a threat—it is already underway. Darya Dolzikova of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) notes that both nations are currently modernising their nuclear forces.
Several key technological drivers are complicating future diplomacy:
- US Air Defences: Russia is increasingly concerned about its ability to penetrate American shields, especially with President Trump’s proposal to build a “Golden Dome” to protect North America.
- Russian “Super Weapons”: To counter these defences, Russia is developing the Poseidon—a nuclear-powered undersea autonomous torpedo—and the Burevestnik, a nuclear-armed cruise missile.
- Hypersonic Missiles: The US, Russia, and China are all racing to deploy long-range hypersonic missiles that travel at speeds exceeding 4,000 mph, making them nearly impossible to intercept.
Q&A: Understanding the New START Expiry
What was the primary purpose of the New START treaty? The treaty aimed to prevent a catastrophic nuclear war. It did so by limiting the number of strategic warheads. It also established transparency measures so neither side would misjudge the other’s intentions.
Did Russia already stop following the treaty before it expired? Russia suspended the treaty three years ago when tensions escalated over the war in Ukraine. However, both nations were still largely believed to be abiding by its core limits until the official expiry.
How does this compare to the original START treaty? The original 1991 treaty was much broader. It barred the US and the Soviet Union from deploying more than 6,000 nuclear warheads each. The 2010 New START was a more refined successor suited for the modern era.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is the expiry of New START considered so dangerous? A: It removes the only remaining legal limit on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals. Without it, there are no mandatory inspections or notifications. This increases the risk of a secret build-up. There is also a risk of a misunderstanding that could lead to conflict.
Q: What is a “successor framework”? A: It is a new agreement or set of rules. This would replace New START. It will be updated to fit the “rapidly evolving context” of modern warfare and technology.
Q: Which countries are most affected by this? A: While the US and Russia hold the most weapons, the entire global community feels the impact. The absence of these limits decreases overall international stability.
