A new global analysis has revealed a startling prediction: more than 39 million people will die from antibiotic-resistant infections between now and 2050. Published on September 16 in The Lancet, the report highlights the growing global health crisis posed by antimicrobial resistance(AMR) and the urgent need for effective interventions.
Between 1990 and 2021, over one million deaths were attributed to drug-resistant infections annually. Researchers now warn that this number could almost double to nearly 2 million by 2050 without urgent action. The report further estimates that around 92 million lives could be saved between 2025 and 2050 with wider access to appropriate antibiotics and better infection management.
FAILING TO MEET GLOBAL HEALTH TARGETS
The findings show that the world is far from meeting the United Nations’ target to reduce deaths caused by AMR by 2030. The report is a stark reminder that antimicrobial resistance is one of the most pressing health challenges of our time.
The data, gathered from 204 countries between 1990 and 2021, focuses on 22 pathogens, 84 bacteria-drug combinations, and 11 diseases, such as blood infections and meningitis. These diseases, exacerbated by drug resistance, are contributing to a growing death toll worldwide.
MORTALITY TRENDS: A SHIFTING CRISIS
The report reveals both positive and troubling trends. Deaths among children under 5 from drug-resistant infections have declined by over 50% in the past three decades, but the number of deaths in people aged over 70 has increased by 80% during the same period.
One of the biggest contributors to rising death rates is Staphylococcus aureus, a bacterium that infects the skin, blood, and internal organs. Between 1990 and 2021, deaths caused by this infection increased by 90.29%. This alarming growth reflects the growing difficulty in treating drug-resistant bacterial infections.
THE ROLE OF GRAM-NEGATIVE BACTERIA
A major concern in the report is the rise of gram-negative bacteria, a group of pathogens notorious for their strong resistance to antibiotics. These bacteria, including Escherichia coli and Acinetobacter baumannii, are particularly difficult to treat due to their ability to exchange antibiotic-resistance genes across species and generations.
Gram-negative bacteria are resistant to Carbapenem drugs, a class of antibiotics used for severe infections. According to the report, deaths from Carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria have surged by 149.51%, rising from 50,900 cases in 1990 to 127,000 cases in 2021.
PREDICTIONS FOR 2050: A GRIM OUTLOOK
The report estimates that by 2050, 1.91 million deaths each year will be directly caused by antimicrobial resistance. Additionally, 8.22 million people will die from illnesses associated with drug resistance.
More than 65% of deaths attributed to AMR by 2050 are expected to occur among individuals aged over 70. This highlights the growing vulnerability of older populations to antibiotic-resistant infections.
GLOBAL DISPARITIES IN AMR IMPACT
Regions predicted to experience the highest mortality rates due to AMR include South Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean. These areas are particularly vulnerable due to limited access to healthcare and antibiotics.
The report stresses that strategies to combat AMR must prioritize low- and middle-income countries where the burden of drug-resistant infections is disproportionately high. Without targeted interventions, these regions will bear the brunt of the crisis.
NEED FOR URGENT ACTION
The rise of antibiotic resistance calls for a global response. To prevent the projected rise in deaths, governments, healthcare providers, and global organizations must work together to ensure access to effective antibiotics, promote better infection control, and prioritize public health interventions.
Improving access to healthcare and ensuring proper use of antibiotics are critical steps in curbing the growing threat of AMR. As the world faces an unprecedented health crisis, the need for coordinated global efforts has never been more urgent.
