A global reduction of 42% in annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 57% by 2035 is essential to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, warns a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
Failing this, the report, Emissions Gap Report 2024: No More Hot Air…Please! projects temperatures could rise by 2.6-3.1°C, with severe impacts on people, ecosystems, and economies. The call to action comes ahead of COP30 climate talks in Brazil. Nations are expected to present updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). They will bring heightened ambitions and concrete plans for rapid action.
Dangers of Delayed Action: Higher Temperatures and More Extreme Weather
UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized the direct connection between record emissions and increasingly intense climate disasters. These include extreme heat, supercharged hurricanes, and catastrophic floods. This year’s UNEP report echoes his warning, indicating that temperature increases of 2.6-3.1°C are probable under current policies, with even the best-case scenarios pointing toward warming of at least 1.9°C if net-zero pledges stay unfulfilled.
ESSENTIAL NDC TARGETS FOR ACHIEVING THE 2°C AND 1.5°C PATHWAYS
For the 2°C pathway, emissions must drop by 28% by 2030 and 37% by 2035 from 2019 levels. These benchmarks will be included in upcoming NDCs as key targets. This ensures that warming remains below the critical 2°C threshold. The report highlights that unless action is accelerated, each year of delay will need a larger annual reduction: 7.5% per year for 1.5°C and 4% for 2°C by 2035.
REQUIRED REDUCTIONS AND THE POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
The report finds that meeting these goals will need significant emission cuts. Emissions need to be reduced by up to 52% by 2030, which is equivalent to 31 gigatons of CO₂. By 2035, this reduction needs to reach 72%, equating to 41 gigatons of CO₂. UNEP estimates that renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, could supply a significant portion of the required reductions by 2035. These sources could contribute up to 38%. Extra contributions would come from efficiency upgrades, electrification, and different fuels across buildings, transportation, and industry.
UNPRECEDENTED GLOBAL MOBILIZATION NEEDED
Achieving the needed reductions will demand significant increases in investment. According to the UNEP report, climate action funding must increase six-fold, with an estimated US$0.9-2.1 trillion per year needed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Such investments are possible within the global financial framework, which is valued at approximately US$110 trillion annually.
ROLE OF THE G20 IN LEADING CLIMATE ACTION
The G20 nations, which account for 77% of global emissions, are urged to spearhead these efforts. Even with the addition of the African Union as a permanent G20 member, the group’s emissions responsibilities stay disproportionately high. This situation highlights the need for a fair, differentiated approach to international climate responsibilities. It underscores the importance of climate finance to make sure that both climate and development goals are met globally.
GOOD NDC DESIGN IS CRUCIAL FOR SUCCESS
The UNEP report advises that updated NDCs must cover all greenhouse gases listed in the Kyoto Protocol. They must also include all economic sectors. They should set explicit conditional and unconditional targets, ensuring transparency and alignment with national sustainable development goals. The report also emphasizes that NDCs must include detailed implementation strategies and transparent mechanisms for monitoring progress. In particular, developing economies should specify the international support they need to achieve their climate objectives.
THE PATH FORWARD: COP29 IN BAKU AND BEYOND
As UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen highlights, immediate action at COP29 in Azerbaijan is crucial. This action is necessary for setting the groundwork for stronger NDCs. Regardless of the 1.5°C goal, every fraction of a degree avoided counts, preserving lives, ecosystems, and economies. The global community must take comprehensive and coordinated action across all sectors. We need to transition away from fossil fuels. We should also expand renewable energy capacity. Our goal is to build a sustainable, net-zero future.