In a groundbreaking study, researchers predict that nearly 50% of the 30,000 US Cities will undergo substantial population decline by the close of the century, which could lead to ghost towns. This demographic shift transcends the reshaping of skylines, posing challenges that could disrupt vital services such as transit, clean water, electricity, and internet access.
By scrutinizing population trends over two decades and considering five potential climate scenarios, researchers delved into the intricacies of cities. The definition expanded beyond major metropolises, encompassing smaller agglomerations often labelled as boroughs, villages, and towns.
BEYOND MEGACITIES: A HOLISTIC PERSPECTIVE
While many studies narrow down their focus to major urban hubs, this analysis provides a holistic outlook, highlighting that currently, 43% of US cities witness a decline in residents. Projections suggest this figure may soar to an alarming 64% by 2100, urging a re-evaluation of conventional growth-centric planning approaches.
REGIONAL DYNAMICS: NORTHEAST, MIDWEST, TEXAS, AND UTAH
Certain regions are poised to bear the brunt of depopulation, with the Northeast and Midwest projected to experience the most significant declines. Surprisingly, even states like Texas and Utah, currently in a growth phase, may witness a substantial number of cities grappling with population loss by the century’s end.
UNRAVELING UNCERTAINTIES
Acknowledging the inherent uncertainties in predicting population trends decades ahead, the study refrains from delving into economic and social factors contributing to the projections. It also overlooks internal migration within the US, influenced by the increasingly impactful climate change.
URGENT CALL FOR CULTURAL SHIFT IN PLANNING
As the study asserts, a crucial cultural shift in planning and engineering communities is imperative. Departing from conventional, growth-based planning methodologies becomes essential to accommodate the imminent demographic shift. Each city’s unique trajectory demands localized planning strategies to navigate climatic and population changes.
GLOBAL PATTERNS: OCTOGENARIANS VS. UNDER 5S
Beyond the US borders, global trends hint at a potential demographic imbalance by 2100, where octogenarians might outnumber under 5s by two to one. Around 183 out of 195 recognized countries could find themselves in population retrograde, grappling with declining fertility rates below replacement levels.
NAVIGATING THE UNKNOWN LANDSCAPE
While the future remains uncertain and intricate, one thing is evident – cities stand on the brink of transformative change. Armed with the right planning, engineering, and a departure from growth-centric paradigms, urban areas can navigate the challenges of the unknown landscape awaiting them in 2100.
The study has been published in Nature Cities.
WHICH U.S. STATE HAS THE MOST GHOST TOWNS?
Texas: At the forefront of the ghost town phenomenon, Texas claims the title with a staggering 511 deserted settlements. The echoes of the state’s mining and oil towns linger in the wind, telling tales of a bygone era that once bustled with life and activity.
California; California, the land of dreams and fortunes, holds the second position with 346 ghost towns. From the remnants of gold rush fever to the echoes of abandoned mining camps, the state’s ghost towns stand as silent witnesses to the ebbs and flows of prosperity.
Kansas: With 308 ghost towns in its historical ledger, Kansas contributes its own enigmatic tales to the ghost town saga. The scars of westward expansion and industrialization are etched across the landscapes, revealing the remnants of communities that once thrived.
Montana’s Golden Relics: Montana boasts 106 ghost towns, and among them, Bannack stands out. Established in the 1860s after prospector John White struck gold, Bannack encapsulates the spirit of the Old West. These silent towns bear witness to a time when dreams of striking it rich drew pioneers across the rugged terrains.
Nevada’s Haunting Landscape: Nevada’s desolate expanses hide over 600 ghost towns, each narrating a unique story of historic mining camps and boomtowns. The silver state echoes with the remnants of an era when prospectors and fortune seekers carved their destinies into the rugged Nevada landscapes.
A GLIMPSE INTO THE PAST: 1880–1940
The majority of US ghost towns trace their roots back to the period of westward expansion and industrialization spanning 1880–1940. A testament to changing fortunes and evolving industries, these abandoned settlements stand frozen in time, offering a glimpse into America’s transformative history.
MINING AND OIL: TEXAS AND CALIFORNIA’S GHOST TOWN LEGACY
The proliferation of ghost towns in Texas and California finds its roots in the mining and oil industries. Once thriving with the fervour of prospectors and oil barons, these towns now stand as poignant reminders of boom-and-bust cycles that shaped the economic landscapes of the respective states.
IS IT POSSIBLE TO LIVE IN A GHOST TOWN?
It’s possible to live in an abandoned building in a ghost town for a short time, but there are some important things to consider such as
Location: Ghost towns are often far from civilization.
Building condition: Unoccupied buildings can quickly break down and need a lot of repairs to be habitable.
Property damage: Any attempts at improvement, even if well-intentioned, could be interpreted as property damage.
Government: Ghost towns are not a good place to try to hide from the government
