As extreme heat grips many countries and increasingly becomes “the new normal,” the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has issued a stark warning. The Frontiers 2025 Report, published today, highlights heightened health risks for older persons.
This comprehensive report also underscores other critical impacts of climate change. Melting glaciers reawaken ancient pathogens. Floods risk releasing dangerous chemicals.
THE SEVENTH EDITION: FORESIGHT AND URGENCY
This 7th edition of the Frontiers Report, titled The Weight of Time – Facing a new age of challenges for people and ecosystems, is part of UNEP’s Foresight Trajectory initiative. It spotlights emerging environmental issues and potential solutions. Notably, the first edition in 2016 accurately warned of growing zoonotic disease risks, preceding the COVID-19 pandemic by four years. This timely report arrives as communities across China, Japan, India, Europe, USA, and elsewhere endure weeks of extreme heat and widespread flooding.
“Heat waves are among the most frequent and deadly impacts of climate change,” stated Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “We must be prepared for the risks these impacts pose, especially for society’s most vulnerable, including older persons.” Andersen emphasized that solutions exist to protect communities and restore ecosystems, offering hope amidst these escalating challenges.
EXTREME HEAT’S TOLL ON OLDER POPULATIONS
Adults aged 65 and above now constitute an increasingly dominant portion of the world population. This demographic shift is particularly pronounced in urban areas of low- and middle-income countries. The report reveals an alarming statistic. Since the 1990s, annual heat-related deaths among older persons have surged by an estimated 85%. Further risks emerge from deteriorating air quality and floods, especially in low-lying coastal cities where many older persons reside.
Older persons, particularly those with chronic illnesses, limited mobility, or frailty, are exceptionally vulnerable. They face increased risks of heat-related health issues, including respiratory, cardiovascular, and metabolic diseases, and ultimately, higher mortality rates.
The report offers crucial recommendations for mitigation. It advocates for creating pollution-free, resilient, and accessible urban spaces with expansive vegetation. Key strategies include improved urban planning, community-based disaster risk management, and enhanced access to climate information for older populations. Earlier this year, the UN Human Rights Council adopted a resolution to develop an “international legally binding instrument on the human rights of older persons,” a potential pathway to bolster safety for those most exposed to climate change.
“ZOMBIE MICROBES”: A FROZEN PANDORA’S BOX
Beyond the immediate risks to older persons, the report issues a chilling warning: ancient microbes are awakening. Should global temperatures exceed 2˚C above pre-industrial levels, the cryosphere—which includes glaciers, ice sheets, and permafrost—will significantly diminish in mass. Cryospheric regions are home to 670 million people. Billions more depend on water originating from these frozen areas.
Dormant fungi, bacteria, and viruses, preserved in these frozen regions for millennia, could reactivate. This raises the alarming prospect of new disease outbreaks and increased antimicrobial resistance. To slow the cryosphere’s decline, the Frontiers 2025 Report urges drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. This includes reducing black carbon emissions from diesel engines, open-field agricultural burning, and wildfires. Limiting tourism in fragile frozen regions is also recommended. Furthermore, the report calls for accelerating scientific research into the diversity of cryospheric microorganisms. These microorganisms may not survive the cryosphere’s ongoing decline.
BANNED CHEMICALS: A DANGEROUS RESURFACE THROUGH FLOODS
The report also identifies risks from the remobilization of chemicals banned decades ago. These legacy pollutants, having accumulated in sediment over centuries, can be brought to the surface by floods. As floodwaters churn sediment and debris, toxic chemicals may be released. They can then re-enter urban areas or contaminate food systems, posing severe environmental and health hazards.
The report outlines effective measures to reduce this growing risk. These include traditional control measures like polders, dikes, and retention basins, alongside improved drainage systems. Nature-based solutions, such as “sponge-city approaches,” are also recommended. It is essential to regularly monitor pollutants in diverse locations and products. Conducting economic impact studies is also crucial to combat this type of pollution.
THE EMERGING THREAT OF AGING DAMS
Another critical emerging threat addressed by the Frontiers 2025 Report is the risk posed by aging dams. While dams have provided numerous benefits, they can also harm indigenous and fishing-dependent communities and degrade ecosystems. The removal of large, older dams that have become unsafe, obsolete, or economically unviable is increasingly occurring in Europe and North America.
The report highlights the potential benefits of removing dams and barriers. This process can restore natural river connectivity, crucial for biodiversity and ecosystem health. Reversing river fragmentation allows for the restoration of natural processes. These efforts support the implementation of the UN’s principles for ecosystem-restoration initiatives. This paves the way for healthier aquatic environments.
