A staggering 2.8 billion people could face exposure to heat waves by 2090, more than double the risk in a low-warming scenario, according to the latest analysis from the International Organization for Migration’s Global Data Institute (IOM GDI).
SOUTHERN ASIA IN THE CROSSHAIRS
A deeper dive into the data unveils a concerning fact – nearly half of those in the heat wave danger zone, up to 1.3 billion individuals, are projected to reside in Southern Asia. This region has witnessed a staggering 59.7 million climate-related displacements in the past decade, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre.
DIVERGENT FUTURES: LOW VS. HIGH WARMING SCENARIOS
The divergence in greenhouse gas concentrations leads to two starkly different futures – a global temperature rise likely below 2°C in a low-warming scenario, and a more ominous 3-4°C increase by 2100 in the high-warming scenario. The implications for human displacement are profound.
UNVEILING THE CLIMATE MOBILITY IMPACTS DASHBOARD
In an effort to understand the intricate relationship between climate hazards, population density, and socio-economic vulnerability, the IOM GDI introduces the Climate Mobility Impacts dashboard. This interactive tool, launched on the Migration Data Portal, sheds light on the impending challenges humanity faces.
2023 BREAKS RECORDS: CLIMATE CHANGE’S VISIBLE GRIP
As the year 2023 solidifies its place as one of the hottest on record, the tangible impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly evident. Communities from the Horn of Africa to the Pacific Islands bear witness to the intensifying effects.
The Climate Mobility Impacts dashboard not only identifies the potential danger zones but also pinpoints locations where hazard exposure, high population density, and economic vulnerability intersect. These granular insights offer a roadmap to prioritize proactive support measures for communities on the brink of climate-related displacement.
BEYOND HEAT WAVES: A MOSAIC OF RISKS
Beyond the looming threat of heat waves, the dashboard highlights an array of risks, including river floods, drought, crop failure, wildfire, and tropical cyclones. By 2090, a high-warming scenario could expose up to 39 million people to river floods, with Sub-Saharan Africa emerging as the most affected region.
Human Mobility in the Face of Climate Change
While there’s an increasingly precise understanding of climate hazards, the response of human mobility remains uncertain. Robert Beyer, IOM GDI Data and Research Analyst, emphasizes the lack of consensus on how global human mobility will react to climate change impacts. However, improving data and models bring the consensus closer, a critical step in informing on-the-ground actions to mitigate the adverse impacts on human mobility.
