Global cancer cases and deaths are rising at an alarming pace, with a new analysis forecasting 30.5 million new diagnoses and 18.6 million deaths in 2050. The study, published in The Lancet by the Global Burden of Disease Study Cancer Collaborators, shows the worldwide cancer burden has more than doubled since 1990 despite advances in treatment.
In 2023 alone, there were 18.5 million new cancer cases and 10.4 million deaths, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers. Compared with 1990, that represents a 105% rise in cases and a 74% rise in deaths. Strikingly, most of these burdens fall on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), which face limited resources to manage the disease.
Rising burden, uneven progress
While age-standardised cancer death rates have fallen globally by 24% since 1990, the improvement is concentrated in high- and upper-middle-income countries. In contrast, low-income countries saw cancer incidence rates rise by 24%, while lower-middle-income nations experienced a 29% rise.
Lead author Dr Lisa Force from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, said: “Cancer remains an important contributor to disease burden globally and is anticipated to grow substantially over the coming decades, with disproportionate growth in countries with limited resources. Cancer control policies remain underprioritised in global health, and insufficient funding hampers progress.”
The role of modifiable risk factors
The study attributes more than 40% of global cancer deaths—4.3 million in 2023—to 44 modifiable risk factors. Tobacco use alone accounts for 21% of cancer deaths, making it the leading preventable cause worldwide. Poor diet, high blood sugar, alcohol consumption, and air pollution are also major contributors.
In high-income countries, tobacco dominated cancer risks, while in low-income countries, unsafe sex was the leading driver, linked to 12.5% of cancer deaths. Men were more likely than women to have cancers tied to modifiable risks, with 46% of male deaths linked to such factors compared to 36% in women.
Co-author Dr Theo Vos from IHME emphasised prevention:
“With four in 10 cancer deaths linked to preventable factors, there are tremendous opportunities for countries to target these risks. Preventing exposure, improving diagnosis, and ensuring treatment can save millions of lives.”
Stark global disparities
In 2023, breast cancer was the most diagnosed cancer worldwide, while tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer caused the most deaths. The analysis also highlighted sharp regional differences. Lebanon recorded the largest increase in age-standardised incidence and mortality since 1990, while Kazakhstan showed the greatest decrease in mortality rates.
The data suggest that population growth and ageing populations are the main drivers of the predicted surge in cases and deaths by 2050, rather than worsening age-adjusted cancer rates. Still, the findings underscore how vulnerable countries with fewer resources face disproportionate challenges.
Call for urgent action
The study authors call for cancer prevention, early detection, and equitable access to treatment to be top priorities in global health policy.
Dr Meghnath Dhimal from the Nepal Health Research Council warned:
“The rise of cancer in LMICs is an impending disaster. There are cost-effective interventions available, but urgent interdisciplinary action is needed to control the growing burden.”
Writing in a linked commentary, experts from the University of Sydney stressed that governments must invest in robust cancer control initiatives:
“To ensure meaningful progress, governments must prioritise funding, strengthen health systems, reduce inequalities, and invest in prevention and research. The future of cancer control depends on decisive, collective action today.”
The road ahead
Without targeted policies, the world risks falling short of the UN Sustainable Development Goal to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases, including cancer, by a third by 2030.
As Dr Force concluded, ensuring equitable cancer outcomes requires expanding access to timely diagnosis, effective treatment, and supportive care—especially in LMICs. With cancer projected to become an even greater global health crisis by 2050, the study underscores that prevention and equity must guide the world’s response.
