Faster warming in the Arctic is projected to trigger a global 2°C temperature increase eight years earlier than anticipated by average global warming rates, according to a recent modeling study led by UCL researchers.
The research aimed to assess the impact of this accelerated warming on breaching the critical temperature thresholds of 1.5°C and 2°C, as outlined in the Paris Agreement.
THE BREACHES
The research team created alternative climate change projections without rapid Arctic warming and compared them with real-world models. Results showed that in scenarios without fast warming, the thresholds were breached five and eight years later than the projected dates of 2031 and 2051.
Arctic amplification, characterized by disproportionately fast warming in the region, introduced significant uncertainty to climate forecasts, surpassing the variation in model projections for the rest of the planet.
NEED FOR MONITORING
Alistair Duffey, lead author and UCL Earth Sciences PhD candidate, emphasized the global importance of rapid warming, highlighting its substantial impact on breaching critical climate thresholds and the need for enhanced monitoring and understanding of the region.
While the study focused on the direct contribution of Arctic warming to global temperature increases, co-author Professor Julienne Stroeve stressed the importance of recognizing local impacts, particularly a potential 4°C annual mean rise in the Arctic with a 2°C global temperature increase.
The study underscores the critical role of the Arctic in achieving global climate targets and calls for increased attention to the unfolding crisis in the region. Arctic climate change, often overlooked by politicians due to its transnational nature, has far-reaching consequences, including sea level rise and permafrost thawing.
Supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Canada 150 Research Chairs Program, the study contributes valuable insights into the urgency of addressing accelerated Arctic warming for mitigating global climate change.
