Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to an independent statistical analysis. The groundbreaking analysis comes from Russian media outlets Mediazona and Meduza, in partnership with a data scientist from Germany’s Tübingen University.
This independent statistical study utilized the concept of excess mortality, a statistical approach commonly used during the COVID-19 pandemic, to estimate the number of additional deaths among men under the age of 50 between February 2022 and May 2023.
NO DISCLOSURES
With no timely disclosure of military losses from either Moscow or Kyiv, both sides tend to downplay the casualties suffered by the other. While Russia has officially acknowledged the deaths of around 6,000 soldiers, the independent analysis conducted by Mediazona and Meduza revealed a database of 27,423 confirmed war deaths based on social media posts and photographs of cemeteries across Russia.
To provide a more comprehensive assessment, the researchers obtained inheritance records filed with the Russian authorities. Analyzing data from the National Probate Registry, they found that the number of inheritance cases for males aged 15 to 49 exceeded expectations by 25,000 in 2022. By May 2023, this excess had risen to 47,000 cases. These figures align with previous assessments by the White House and intelligence agencies suggesting over 20,000 Russian deaths in Ukraine.
The analysis says that in February, the UK Ministry of Defence said approximately 40,000 to 60,000 Russians had likely been killed in the war. A leaked assessment from the US Defence Intelligence Agency put the number of Russians killed in action in the first year of the war at 35,000 to 43,000.
While the true human cost of the conflict remains challenging to ascertain, the findings of this study challenge the official narrative and offer valuable insight into the devastating impact of the war. It is important to note that uncertainties remain, including the status of missing soldiers and deaths among older men. Nonetheless, this independent analysis sheds light on the hidden casualties of the war and emphasizes the need for a comprehensive understanding of the conflict’s toll.
CHALLENGES AND UNCERTAINTIES
One of the main challenges in assessing war casualties is the difficulty in obtaining comprehensive and verifiable data. The study acknowledges uncertainties surrounding missing soldiers and deaths among older men, which may affect the overall accuracy of the results. Additionally, the research does not account for citizens of Ukraine fighting in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics, further limiting the comprehensive understanding of the conflict’s toll.
INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION
The study’s reliance on social media postings and photographs of cemeteries to build a database of confirmed war deaths raises concerns about potential biases and limitations. While the researchers claim to have verified the deaths through multiple sources, the lack of independent verification and the possibility of misinterpretation of the data should be taken into account.
THE APPROACH
The independent statistical analysis on Russian war deaths in Ukraine provides valuable insights into the human cost of the conflict. However, it is crucial to approach the study with critical scrutiny, considering the methodological limitations, challenges in data collection, and potential biases. Further independent verification and comprehensive data sharing from all involved parties are necessary to obtain a more accurate understanding of the true extent of casualties in the war.
