The global arms trade landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, according to new data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). While the overall volume of arms transfers dipped slightly by 3.3% between 2014-2018 and 2019-2023, regional trends and supplier dominance painted a more intricate picture.
EUROPE DOUBLES DOWN ON US WEAPONS
One of the most striking trends is the dramatic surge in arms imports by European states. These nations nearly doubled their intake of weaponry (+94%) between the two five-year periods. This surge is largely fuelled by an influx of American weaponry, with the US supplying over half (55%) of European arms imports in 2019-2023, compared to just 35% in the previous period. This trend suggests a potential strengthening of trans-Atlantic military ties, with European nations likely seeking to bolster their defences and solidify relations with the US.
US AND FRANCE FLEX THEIR ARMS EXPORT MUSCLES
The US further solidified its position as the world’s leading arms dealer, with a 17% increase in exports and a commanding 42% share of the global market. This strategic dominance comes amidst a perceived challenge to US economic and geopolitical influence by emerging powers. France also emerged as a major player, flexing its arms export muscles with a 47% export increase. This surge propelled France to the position of the second-largest arms exporter, surpassing Russia for the first time.
‘France is using the opportunity of strong global demand to boost its arms industry through exports,’ said Katarina Djokic, researcher at SIPRI. ‘France has been particularly successful in selling its combat aircraft outside Europe.’
RUSSIA’S ARMS EXPORTS TAKE A NOSEDIVE
In stark contrast, Russia’s arms exports witnessed a dramatic 53% decline. This could be attributed to various factors, including sanctions imposed following the invasion of Ukraine and a shift in recipient nations’ preferences towards alternative suppliers.
Steep rise in arms imports to Europe
Arms imports by European states were 94 per cent higher in 2019–23 than in 2014–18. Ukraine emerged as the largest European arms importer in 2019–23 and the fourth largest in the world, after at least 30 states supplied major arms as military aid to Ukraine from February 2022.
The 55 per cent of arms imports by European states that were supplied by the USA in 2019–23 was a substantial increase from 35 per cent in 2014–18. The next largest suppliers to the region were Germany and France, which accounted for 6.4 per cent and 4.6 per cent of imports, respectively.
‘With many high-value arms on order—including nearly 800 combat aircraft and combat helicopters—European arms imports are likely to remain at a high level,’ said Pieter Wezeman, Senior Researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme. ‘In the past two years we have also seen much greater demand for air defence systems in Europe, spurred on by Russia’s missile campaign against Ukraine.’
ASIA AND OCEANIA: TOP ARMS IMPORTERS, SHIFTING SUPPLIERS
Despite a slight decrease from the previous period, Asia and Oceania continued to be the region with the largest appetite for arms, accounting for 37% of global imports. Notably, India retained its position as the world’s top arms importer. though Russia remained India’s main arms supplier (accounting for 36 per cent of its arms imports), this was the first five-year period since 1960–64 when deliveries from Russia (or the Soviet Union prior to 1991) made up less than half of India’s arms imports. Pakistan also significantly increased its arms imports (+43 per cent). Pakistan was the fifth largest arms importer in 2019–23 and China became even more dominant as its main supplier, providing 82 per cent of its arms imports. However, a significant shift occurred in its primary supplier. The US became the region’s leading arms provider for the first time in 25 years. This shift reflects growing concerns over China’s ambitions in the region, prompting nations to strengthen their military capabilities through US-supplied weaponry.
MIDDLE EAST: HIGH IMPORT LEVELS PERSIST
The Middle East remained a significant arms import region, with Saudi Arabia maintaining its position as the world’s second-largest importer despite a decrease from record highs. The US and European nations were the primary suppliers to the region, potentially driven by ongoing regional conflicts and simmering tensions.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: CHINA EMERGES AS THE TOP SUPPLIER
While arms imports by African states decreased overall, China emerged as the dominant supplier for sub-Saharan Africa, surpassing Russia. This trend suggests a growing influence of China in the African arms market, potentially shaping future military partnerships on the continent.
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH
Egypt, the world’s seventh-largest importer, significantly bolstered its military capabilities through major arms acquisitions, including combat aircraft and warships.
Australia, the eighth-largest importer, secured a landmark deal with the US and UK to acquire nuclear-powered submarines, significantly boosting its military projection.
The US remained the primary arms supplier to Israel, while interest in long-range missiles is on the rise globally, signalling a potential new dimension in future conflicts.
The SIPRI report unveils a multifaceted global arms trade landscape. The US solidified its dominance as the top supplier, while regional dynamics such as Europe’s growing reliance on US weaponry and China’s expanding influence in Africa are noteworthy trends. As geopolitical tensions persist and military modernization efforts continue, the future trajectory of the global arms trade remains to be seen. It’s a complex marketplace where alliances shift, suppliers compete, and the consequences can be far-reaching.
