The number of childless women of prime childbearing age in the United States continues to climb, according to new research from the University of New Hampshire. In 2024, there were 5.7 million more childless women than expected based on past fertility patterns. This marks a sharp increase from 2.1 million in 2016 and 4.7 million in 2022.
This shift has contributed to an estimated 11.8 million fewer births than expected in the past 17 years.
Childlessness rising fastest among younger women
“Childless rates increased the most among women under 30, where fertility rate declines were also greatest,” explained Kenneth Johnson, professor of sociology and senior demographer at UNH’s Carsey School of Public Policy.
Johnson’s analysis shows that in 2024, there were four million more women aged 20 to 39 than in 2006. Yet, seven million fewer in this age group had given birth, representing a 45 percent increase in childlessness.
The findings are based on U.S. Census Bureau Current Population Survey data from 2006 to 2024, alongside fertility and birth data from the National Center for Health Statistics.
Fertility among older women not enough to offset losses
In contrast to the significant increase in childlessness among women under 30, women in their 30s saw only modest changes. Fertility rates decreased slightly for women in their early 30s but increased modestly among women aged 35 to 49.
However, these small gains among older women have not been large enough to compensate for the substantial declines in fertility among younger women.
Potential impact on society
“The critical question is what kind of impact this will have on society,” Johnson said. “While it’s possible that women who are currently delaying childbearing may still have children, the substantial rise in the proportion of childless women contributes to something called the ‘demographic cliff.’ This could have significant implications for health care, schools, child-related businesses, and eventually for the labor force.”
Johnson’s research indicates that if fertility patterns observed before the Great Recession had continued, 4.4 million (25 percent) more women aged 20 to 39 would have had at least two children by 2024. Additionally, 1.3 million (15 percent) more would have had one child.
Social and economic factors behind the shift
Experts point to a combination of social, demographic, and economic influences behind this trend. These include greater educational and career opportunities for women, soaring housing costs, the rising expense of raising children, limited access to affordable childcare and family leave, and changing patterns of marriage, cohabitation, and immigration.
The Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic have also left lasting marks on fertility decisions. Together, these factors have reshaped attitudes about marriage, parenthood, and family planning in the U.S.
