The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be unusually active. According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there’s a 60% chance of above-normal storm activity. Moreover, there is a 30% chance of a normal season and just 10% likelihood of a quieter-than-usual season.
NOAA projects 13 to 19 named storms this season. Of these, 6 to 10 could become hurricanes. Out of these, 3 to 5 are expected to be major. Major hurricanes are Category 3 or above, with sustained winds over 111 mph or 178 km/h. These forecasts come with a 70% confidence level.
If this materializes, 2025 would mark the tenth straight year of above-average hurricane activity. For comparison, a typical season sees about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
WHAT’S FUELING THE SURGE?
Experts point to a powerful mix of climate and weather factors expected to intensify storm development:
- Warmer-than-average ocean temperatures
- ENSO-neutral conditions (no strong El Niño or La Niña pattern)
- Weak wind shear, which allows storms to form and intensify more easily
- A stronger West African Monsoon, a common breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes
Warm oceans provide more energy, and low wind shear gives storms an environment to grow without disruption.
TECHNOLOGY BOOSTS FORECAST ACCURACY
NOAA unveiled new forecasting tools this year, enhancing storm tracking and risk communication.
“We’re now using the most advanced models and tracking systems ever,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Americans have more access to real-time forecasts than ever before.”
Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm added: “Hurricanes no longer just threaten coastal cities. Flooding from storms like Helene and Debby in 2024 proved that inland areas are equally vulnerable.”
RECENT STORMS HIGHLIGHT RISING THREAT
Last year brought record-setting and devastating hurricanes:
- Beryl became the earliest Atlantic Category 5 hurricane ever, striking the Caribbean hard.
- Helene and Milton wreaked havoc across parts of the U.S., with widespread flooding and infrastructure loss.
These storms underscore that even one landfalling hurricane can undo years of development in vulnerable communities.
WMO AND GLOBAL PREPAREDNESS
The Atlantic hurricane season spans June 1 to November 30. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) closely monitors it through its Tropical Cyclone Programme. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center serves as the regional hub for the Atlantic.
Globally, from 1970 to 2021, tropical cyclones have been the leading cause of both human and economic disaster impacts. They caused over 2,000 events. While fatalities dropped dramatically—from 350,000 in the 1970s to under 20,000 between 2010 and 2019—economic damage continues to rise. The last decade alone saw storm-related losses exceed $573 billion.
WARNINGS SAVE LIVES, BUT LOSSES GROW
The decline in deaths is attributed to early warning systems and improved emergency planning. Yet, economic losses remain a massive concern—especially in small island nations and developing coastal regions.
WMO and partners have ramped up the Early Warnings for Allinitiative, focusing on at-risk island nations to expand disaster preparedness and increase local capacity for response.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season may be one of the most active on record, driven by warm oceans and favorable atmospheric conditions. While advanced forecasts and early warningsoffer hope for protecting lives, the economic risks are growing, and the call for global climate resiliencehas never been louder.
