Religious identity is fading across much of the world, according to new research from Pew Research Center and international scholars. Between 2010 and 2020, the share of people affiliated with any religion dropped at least 5 percentage points in 35 countries. The fall was sharper in places such as Australia (17 points), Chile (17), Uruguay (16) and the United States (13).
The study, published in Nature Communications, suggests these shifts follow a predictable pattern known as the secular transition, unfolding gradually as younger, less religious generations replace older ones.
The Secular Transition: Three Stages
Researchers describe the decline in religiosity as the Participation-Importance-Belonging (P-I-B) sequence:
- People attend religious services less often.
- Religion becomes less important in their personal lives.
- Fewer people identify with a religion at all.
This sequence tends to play out in three stages:
- Early stage: The biggest generational gap is in participation. Religion is still widely important and affiliation remains high. Many African countries, including Senegal, are currently in this stage.
- Medium stage: Differences appear across all three measures—participation, importance, and belonging. The U.S., along with many countries in Asia and the Americas, is here.
- Late stage: Religion is already weak across all ages, and the main generational difference is affiliation. Many European nations, such as Denmark, fall into this category.
Regional Differences and Exceptions
Countries with Christian or Buddhist majorities are more likely to be in the medium or late stages of secular transition. By contrast, most Muslim-majority nations and Hindu-majority India remain in the early stage, and it is unclear whether they will follow the same trajectory.
There are also notable exceptions:
- Eastern Europe: Nations such as Russia, Moldova, and Georgia experienced religious revival after decades of communist suppression, breaking the expected pattern.
- Israel: Despite a large secular Jewish population, younger generations are not less religious than older ones, due to the growth of Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox communities.
A Long-Term Global Shift
The authors caution that secular transition is not inevitable everywhere. Still, the trend is clear: in many societies, younger generations are moving steadily away from organized religion, reshaping the global religious landscape.
