In a concerning new report from the Global Carbon Project, carbon emissions from fossil fuels have surged to a record high in 2024, reaching 37.4 billion tonnes—up 0.8% from 2023. Despite ongoing efforts to curb emissions and mitigate climate change, the world has not yet seen a peak in fossil CO2 emissions. This situation highlights the critical need for more rapid and aggressive climate action.
The 2024 Global Carbon Budget report forecasts a total of 41.6 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions when including emissions from land-use changes like deforestation. This marks an increase from last year’s total of 40.6 billion tonnes. The report underscores a troubling trend. While land-use change emissions have declined over the past decade, fossil fuel CO2 emissions have continued to rise.
This year, both fossil and land-use change CO2 emissions are set to climb. The ongoing impacts of droughts and fires during the El Niño event of 2023-2024 fuel this increase. These conditions exacerbate emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. With emissions over 40 billion tonnes annually, atmospheric CO2 levels continue to rise, contributing to increasingly severe global warming.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND THE NEED FOR IMMEDIATE ACTION
Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, who led the study, warned that “time is running out” to meet the Paris Agreement’s climate goals. The report urges global leaders to take significant action. It specifically calls on those meeting at COP29 to implement drastic cuts to fossil fuel emissions. These actions are crucial to keep the global temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The longer the world delays, the more severe the impacts of climate change will become.
Despite rising emissions, the report highlights some positive developments. The adoption of renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles is growing, helping to displace fossil fuel use. Additionally, deforestation-related emissions have shown signs of decline in recent years. Nevertheless, these gains are insufficient to counterbalance the rising fossil fuel emissions, and the global peak in emissions remains elusive.
KEY FINDINGS FROM THE 2024 GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET
- Fossil Fuel Emissions: Emissions from coal are projected to rise by 0.2%, oil by 0.9%, and gas by 2.4%. Coal contributes the largest share (41%) of global fossil CO2 emissions. Oil follows with 32%, and natural gas contributes 21%.
- Regional Emissions Trends:
- China: Emissions are projected to increase by 0.2%, though a decrease is still possible within the uncertainty range.
- United States: Emissions are expected to decrease by 0.6%.
- India: Emissions are projected to rise by 4.6%.
- European Union: Emissions are forecast to decrease by 3.8%.
- Other Regions: Emissions in other parts of the world are expected to rise by 1.1%.
- International Aviation and Shipping: Emissions from these sectors are projected to increase by 7.8%, though they stay below pre-pandemic levels.
- Land-Use Emissions: Emissions from land-use changes are expected to rise. This change reverses the declining trend seen in recent years. The main cause is extreme wildfires and droughts in 2023 and 2024.
- CO2 Removal: Reforestation and afforestation efforts are helping to offset about half of deforestation-related emissions. However, technology-based CO2 removal is still a tiny fraction of the total emissions.
THE CARBON BUDGET: RACING AGAINST TIME
The study estimates that the remaining “carbon budget” for staying below 1.5°C of global warming is running out fast. At the current rate of emissions, the team predicts a 50% chance that global temperatures will exceed 1.5°C consistently within about six years. This estimate is highly uncertain. The uncertainty is particularly due to the unknown effects of other warming agents, such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O).
The urgency is clear: without drastic emissions reductions, the 1.5°C target will soon be beyond reach, and the world will face increasingly severe climate impacts.
The 2024 Global Carbon Budget report presents a stark reminder of the urgency needed to address the climate crisis. While there is some progress, it is not nearly enough to reverse the rising emissions trend. Global leaders must act decisively to reduce fossil fuel emissions and accelerate the transition to a sustainable, low-carbon future.
