A new Lancet Commission report has issued a stark warning: adolescent health worldwide is at a breaking point. If current trends continue, more than 464 million young people aged 10 to 24 will be overweight or obese by 2030. This is a staggering 143 million more than in 2015.
The report is only the second comprehensive analysis of global adolescent health since 2016. It draws on extensive data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study. It reveals that despite progress in some areas, like reduced tobacco use and improved access to education, challenges remain. Rising obesity, mental health disorders, and climate threats are placing adolescent well-being in peril.
“The health and well-being of adolescents worldwide is at a tipping point,” said Professor Sarah Baird, co-chair of the Lancet Commission and a faculty member at George Washington University.
OBESITY EPIDEMIC EXPANDS WORLDWIDE
Obesity among adolescents is surging across both high- and low-income regions. In areas such as Latin America and the Middle East, nearly one in three adolescents is expected to be overweight by the end of the decade. Even in Africa and Asia, where obesity was once rare, rates have risen eight-fold over the last 30 years.
This sharp increase highlights systemic failures in global efforts to tackle obesity. This is despite decades of awareness campaigns, school-based interventions, and nutrition guidelines.
MENTAL HEALTH AND SUICIDE: RISING TOLL
Mental health disorders and suicide will be major contributors to lost healthy life for adolescents by 2030. The report estimates that 42 million years of healthy life will be lost due to mental illness and suicide alone—up from 40 million in 2015.
These trends signal a growing global mental health burden that has outpaced investments in care infrastructure. This is especially true in low- and middle-income countries.
EMERGING THREATS: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE DIGITAL AGE
The Commission also underscores new 21st-century threats affecting youth:
- Climate Change: Today’s adolescents are the first generation raised in a world already 0.5°C warmer than pre-industrial times. By 2100, almost 1.9 billion adolescents will live in climates with average temperatures 2.8°C higher, increasing risks of heat illness, malnutrition, and climate-induced trauma.
- Digital Environment: Access to digital tools and education has improved. However, unregulated digital exposure may contribute to mental distress. It can also lead to sedentary lifestyles and misinformation.
MULTIPLE BURDENS IN DEVELOPING NATIONS
More than 1 billion adolescents are projected to live in what the report calls “multi-burden” countries—nations grappling with infectious disease, non-communicable disease, and socio-economic instability all at once.
The report stresses that this combination of risks can trap generations of youth in poor health, poverty, and missed potential. This situation further exacerbates global inequalities.
URGENT CALL FOR ACTION
The Commission urges governments, international organizations, and civil society to make bold investments in adolescent health, including:
- Policies addressing obesity, nutrition, and exercise
- Expanding mental health services and suicide prevention
- Climate resilience programs for youth
- Regulating and leveraging digital environments for health promotion
“We must invest in the health and well-being of young people today if we are to protect our collective future,” said Baird.
THE DECADE THAT WILL DEFINE A GENERATION
With just five years left until 2030, the window to reverse these dangerous trends is rapidly closing. The Lancet Commission makes it clear: adolescents are not just future adults—they are today’s citizens, and their health is a direct measure of the world’s priorities.
Without immediate and coordinated action, the world risks permanent damage to the physical and mental well-being of the largest generation of adolescents in history.
