As the world grapples with increasingly frequent and severe disasters, many fueled by the climate crisis, the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) 2024 from UNDP stresses the need for a forensic approach to studying disasters. The report advocates for in-depth analysis of disaster causes to drive preventative actions that reduce impacts and build long-term resilience.
According to the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), every disaster provides critical lessons. Countries must analyze these events thoroughly to build back better and foster resilient recovery.
“Every disaster is too precious to waste. We must use every disaster to draw lessons. This means conducting a deep technical analysis to understand underlying factors that led to the disaster,” said Kamal Kishore, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction and Head of UNDRR. “To ensure a resilient recovery, countries must learn from the past to inform how they invest, build, and develop for the future.”
CASE STUDIES IN THE GAR 2024 REPORT
The GAR 2024 report presents ten case studies of recent global disasters, analyzing the factors that exacerbated or reduced their impacts. Each case study provides insights into how countries can bolster resilience across three critical areas:
- People: How social vulnerabilities impact disaster outcomes.
- Planet: The environmental factors contributing to or mitigating disaster risks.
- Prosperity: Economic systems’ roles in creating or managing disaster risks.
By examining the interconnectedness of institutional, economic, and ecological vulnerabilities, the forensic analysis in these case studies identifies root causes of systemic risk.
Cyclone freddy and malawi’s vulnerabilities
One case study in the GAR 2024 report highlights the 2023 impact of Cyclone Freddy in Africa. While the cyclone’s status as one of the longest-lasting on record garnered attention, less focus was placed on the underlying vulnerabilities that led to widespread devastation.
In Malawi, for instance, the cyclone resulted in around 1,200 deaths. However, the high death toll was not solely due to Freddy’s power. The country’s weak infrastructure and poor transport networks hampered evacuation efforts and delayed the delivery of critical assistance.
Mexico City’s Success Story
On the other hand, the report presents Mexico City as a success story. Following the devastating 1985 earthquake that claimed between 10,000 and 30,000 lives, the city transformed its disaster preparedness.
In the aftermath of a 2017 earthquake, Mexico City, despite its larger population, recorded only 326 deaths. This drastic reduction is attributed to the city’s incorporation of lessons from past disasters, resulting in improved building codes and new laws designed to protect citizens from future seismic events.
MAKING SYSTEMIC RISKS TRACEABLE
A forensic approach to disasters makes systemic risks easier to track and assess. Understanding the underlying vulnerabilities — such as weak infrastructure, inadequate policies, or economic inequities — can expose the root causes of disasters. For policymakers, this creates entry points for action, helping them prioritize investments that address the very origins of disaster risk.
“Disasters are the culmination of overlooked vulnerabilities. By focusing on the root causes, forensic investigations of disasters offer policymakers a blueprint for building resilience into the fabric of sustainable development,” said Irasema Alcántara-Ayala, Professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico and co-author of the report.
Extreme Disasters Exceeding Historical Norms
The GAR 2024 report emphasizes that extreme disasters are not “normal.” Recent climate-related disasters have exceeded historical norms and the projections of many risk models. These events are driven by human activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, which intensifies natural cycles like El Niño.
ROLE OF HUMAN CHOICES IN DISASTER RISK
Everyday decisions in urban planning, infrastructure development, poverty reduction, and environmental management are contributing to the exacerbation of disaster risks. Despite the growing body of knowledge on risk reduction, much of this expertise is not being applied to emerging challenges.
The GAR 2024 report argues that governments must prioritize resilience as a guiding principle in their infrastructure and development plans, particularly as much of the infrastructure required to support a growing population has yet to be built. Proactive measures taken now will determine the disaster resilience of future cities and communities.
BUILDING RESILIENCE INTO FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
To ensure sustainable development and mitigate the impacts of future disasters, the report highlights the importance of integrating disaster-avoidance strategies into the planning and building of infrastructure and communities. The following steps are critical:
Focusing on Root Causes
Countries must focus on addressing the root causes of disasters, such as institutional weaknesses, socio-economic disparities, and environmental degradation. Forensic analyses of past events can help governments pinpoint these vulnerabilities and design policies to reduce risk.
Strengthening Infrastructure
Investing in resilient infrastructure is key to reducing disaster risks. By building structures that can withstand extreme weather events, countries can protect their populations and limit economic losses.
Climate-Smart Urban Planning
Urban planning must take into account the increasing risk of climate-driven disasters. Cities should adopt climate-smart designs that prioritize sustainable land use, flood prevention, and energy-efficient infrastructure.
International Collaboration
Disasters do not respect borders. Countries must collaborate on global solutions, sharing knowledge, resources, and technologies to strengthen disaster risk reduction and resilience on an international scale.
