A recent pan-European assessment uncovers alarming projections for temperature-driven mortality across the continent. Despite efforts to limit global temperature rise to 3°C, the study forecasts an additional 55,000 temperature-related deaths annually by the end of the century without further adaptation measures. This 13.5% increase underscores the urgent need for intensified climate action.
CURRENT AND FUTURE TEMPERATURE-DRIVEN MORTALITY
The study, led by JRC scientists, assesses temperature-related mortality across 1,368 European regions in 30 countries, including the EU27, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK. It highlights significant disparities in temperature-related deaths and presents projections for future impacts based on climate and demographic changes.
DISPARITIES IN TEMPERATURE-RELATED DEATHS
Currently, cold-related deaths vastly outnumber heat-related fatalities in Europe, with an approximate ratio of 8.3 to 1. The study shows that cold-related deaths are 2.5 times more common in Eastern Europe compared to the west, while heat-related deaths are over six times more frequent in the south compared to the north.
SHIFT IN MORTALITY PATTERNS WITH GLOBAL WARMING
As global temperatures rise, projections indicate a dramatic shift in mortality patterns. A 4°C increase could alter the ratio of cold to heat-related deaths from 8.3:1 to 2.6:1. The study forecasts a substantial increase in heat-related deaths, particularly in southern Europe.
REGIONAL PROJECTIONS FOR HEAT-RELATED MORTALITY
Under a 3°C warming scenario, heat-related deaths in southern European countries are projected to rise significantly:
- Greece: From 1,730 to 4,767 deaths annually
- France: From 3,061 to 13,564 deaths annually
- Italy: From 10,433 to 28,285 deaths annually
- Spain: From 4,414 to 20,194 deaths annually
The total mortality burden attributable to extreme temperatures is expected to increase from 407,000 deaths per year (baseline period 1991-2020) to 113.6 deaths per 100,000 people annually by 2100, marking a significant rise.
REGIONAL HOTSPOTS AND VARIATIONS
By 2050, European hotspots for heat-related mortality are expected to be concentrated in southern regions, including Spain, Italy, Greece, and parts of France. Eastern Europe will face intensified warming but may experience a decrease in total mortality due to demographic changes. Northern Europe will encounter warmer summers, with increased vulnerability due to an ageing population.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND ADAPTATION NEEDS
The evidence highlights the need for targeted adaptation measures to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat and cold. Policymakers are urged to prioritize areas and communities at heightened risk to mitigate the public health challenges posed by future temperature extremes.
This comprehensive assessment provides critical insights into the future impacts of temperature changes on mortality across Europe. By understanding these projections, authorities can better prepare for the challenges posed by climate change and implement strategies to safeguard public health.