Under the high-emissions scenario, many regions worldwide are expected to experience declines exceeding 10 percent in exploitable fish biomass by mid-century, said a new report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). By the end of the century, these declines could worsen to 30 percent or more in 48 countries and territories. In contrast, the low-emissions scenario, projecting global warming of 1.5–2 °C, shows stabilized changes with minimal biomass reductions across 178 countries and territories by 2100.
The FAO report, titled “Climate change risks to marine ecosystems and fisheries: Projections to 2100,” reveals alarming projections under different emissions scenarios. According to the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP), global fish biomass faces substantial declines, particularly under high-emissions scenarios predicting global warming of 3–4.0 °C by mid-century.
REGIONAL VULNERABILITIES AND TOP PRODUCER NATIONS
Countries heavily reliant on fisheries, such as Peru and China, face significant risks. Peru’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) could see biomass declines of 37.3 percent under high-emissions scenarios, highlighting the critical need for adaptive management strategies.
FishMIP, a collaborative effort of international researchers supported by FAO, employs advanced models to forecast long-term climate impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. These findings were presented during COFI36, emphasizing the urgent call to address climate change impacts on global aquatic food systems.
Manuel Barange, FAO Assistant Director-General and Director of the Fisheries and Aquaculture Division, stressed the importance of understanding climate impacts to design effective adaptation programs. Lowering emissions could significantly mitigate end-of-century biomass losses, benefiting nearly all countries and territories compared to high-emissions scenarios.
STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE FISHERIES
FAO advocates for robust climate change mitigation measures and adaptive fisheries management to safeguard global fisheries and aquatic food security. The report underscores the role of integrated policies and sustainable practices in achieving FAO’s vision of resilient and equitable aquatic food systems—known as the Blue Transformation.
FUTURE DIRECTIONS: FISHMIP2.0 AND BEYOND
Looking ahead, FishMIP2.0 aims to enhance modelling reliability and address policy-related questions crucial for global food security and marine resource management in a changing climate. This includes integrating broader ocean and coastal uses alongside fisheries management to support informed decision-making.
