Climate change is wreaking havoc on our planet, and a new study published in Science paints a grim picture for the future of biodiversity. Researchers from the University of Oxford delved into the fossil record to uncover the factors that make species more susceptible to extinction during periods of climate change. Their findings provide valuable insights for identifying species currently facing an existential threat due to human-caused climate change.
RISING TEMPERATURES, RISING EXTINCTION RATES
The study establishes a clear link between the severity of climate change and extinction rates. Species that endured temperature fluctuations exceeding 7°C across geological timescales faced a significantly higher risk of disappearing entirely. This finding highlights the potential devastation of the rapid climate change we’re experiencing today, fuelled by human activities.
The research goes beyond simply highlighting the severity of climate shifts. It also identifies specific characteristics that make certain species more vulnerable. Animals that can only survive within a narrow temperature range (less than 15°C) and those inhabiting extreme climatic zones, like the polar regions, were found to be disproportionately at risk of extinction.
GEOGRAPHIC RANGE: A KEY DEFENSE AGAINST EXTINCTION
However, the study discovered a single factor that emerged as the strongest predictor of extinction risk: geographic range size. Species with vast geographical distributions were demonstrably less likely to disappear. This suggests that a wider range provides more opportunities for populations to adapt or relocate to find suitable habitats as the climate changes.
Body size also played a role, with smaller-bodied creatures facing a higher extinction risk. The reasons for this are still being explored, but it’s possible that smaller animals have fewer resources to cope with environmental changes.
The impact of these factors is not simply additive; it’s cumulative. Animals with both limited geographic range and restricted thermal tolerance were even more vulnerable than those with just one of these limitations.
“Our study identified geographic range as the strongest predictor of extinction risk for marine invertebrates,” explained lead author Cooper Malanoski, a DPhil student at Oxford’s Department of Earth Sciences. “But the magnitude of climate change also emerged as a significant factor, and this has serious consequences for current biodiversity loss in the face of climate change.”
IDENTIFYING VULNERABLE SPECIES TO INFORM CONSERVATION STRATEGIES
These findings can be a game-changer for conservation efforts. By pinpointing species most at risk from ongoing climate change, researchers and conservationists can develop targeted strategies to protect them. With a clear understanding of which species are most vulnerable, conservation efforts can be prioritized and resources allocated more effectively.
The research team emphasizes the need for further exploration of how climate change interacts with other threats to extinction, such as ocean acidification and the depletion of oxygen in marine environments (anoxia).
“This study underscores the undeniable link between climate change and extinction risk throughout Earth’s history,” said Professor Dan Lunt from the University of Bristol, who also participated in the research. “It serves as a stark warning to humanity as we continue to recklessly alter the climate through fossil fuel burning.”
This research offers a crucial step towards understanding and mitigating the devastating effects of climate change on biodiversity. By recognizing the most vulnerable species and the factors that heighten their extinction risk, we can develop more effective conservation strategies to safeguard the planet’s incredible array of life forms. The fight against extinction in the face of climate change demands immediate action, and this study provides valuable insights to guide our efforts.
