The UK’s forests are at risk of a ‘catastrophic ecosystem collapse’ within the next 50 years if immediate action isn’t taken, according to a pioneering report. The study, a collaborative effort between Forestry England and the University of Cambridge, aimed at identifying under-recognized threats and trends that could significantly impact UK forests over the ensuing five decades.
THE STUDY: A COLLABORATIVE ENDEAVOUR
The study, published in the journal Forestry, involved a panel of 42 experts across professions and geographies who compiled an extensive 180-item list of potential issues. This list was pared down to 30 issues through a series of review exercises. During a final workshop, the panel identified the top 15 issues that could majorly impact UK forests.
THE MAJOR THREAT: CATASTROPHIC FOREST ECOSYSTEM COLLAPSE
While the study’s methodology did not allow for an overall ranking of the 15 issues, individual scoring by the panel placed ‘catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’ as the most highly ranked issue. A staggering 64% of experts ranked it as their top concern, with 88% ranking it within their top three. This term refers to a myriad of interrelated hazards that could lead to the total or partial collapse of forests, a phenomenon already witnessed in parts of Europe and North America.
OTHER EMERGING ISSUES
The study also identified several other potential issues. Climate change-induced droughts may lead to conflicts over water resources between forests and societies, while forests could also help mitigate flood impacts. The rise in tree viral diseases due to globalization and climate change was another concern, with little known about their effects on forest tree species and the wider ecosystem. Additionally, climate change could narrow the timeframe for forest management activities, such as harvesting and thinning.
EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES
Despite the threats, some emerging issues also present new opportunities. Experts predict that trees will play a central role in future urban planning, creating ‘forest lungs’ thanks to an increased understanding of their societal benefits. This could lead to a greater integration of urban and rural areas.
Moreover, international commitments on nature could have local repercussions. The mandatory reporting of companies’ supply chain impacts on nature, as proposed by the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD), could create additional incentives for nature-friendly forest management.
LOOKING AHEAD
The study’s findings are both alarming and exciting. However, the authors emphasize that these are possibilities, not certainties, and there is still time to act. By addressing these threats and seizing the opportunities, future generations could inherit resilient forests with all their accompanying benefits. The Forestry Commission plans to convene the sector in 2024 to discuss the next steps.
The study’s senior author, Professor Bill Sutherland, stressed the importance of horizon scanning, especially considering that trees planted now will face drastically different circumstances as they mature over the years.
