Climate variability increasingly dictates renewable energy performance worldwide, with 2024—the hottest year on record at 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels—triggering sharp regional shifts in solar, wind, and hydropower output. The WMO–IRENA 2024 Year in Review documents a 4% surge in climate-driven global energy demand versus 1991–2020 averages as renewable capacity crossed 4,400 GW.
These dynamics demand climate intelligence integration to meet COP28’s renewable tripling goal.
Regional Extremes Stress Energy Systems
El Niño remnants, ocean heat records, and long-term warming produced stark contrasts. Southern Africa enjoyed wind capacity factors +8-16% and solar +2-6%, but hydropower lagged a third year amid record demands. South Asia faced wind/solar deficits with October cooling needs +16%. East Africa gained hydropower from heavy rains; South America’s dry heat suppressed output while spiking consumption.
Residual El Niño amplified these swings, underscoring renewables’ weather sensitivity at scale.
Seasonal Forecasts Gain Proven Value
For the first time, the report validates seasonal climate predictions—especially ECMWF models—for energy metrics. Early summer 2024 forecasts accurately flagged Africa’s high demand and weak solar months ahead. Such foresight enables reservoir management, load balancing, infrastructure timing, and cross-border trade, smoothing supply-demand volatility.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo states: “Climate variability defines energy operations—early warnings build resilient clean power.”
Policy Urgency for Climate-Resilient Planning
As nations craft LT-LEDS, the analysis urges bolstered observations, regional climate services, forecast mainstreaming, and Paris-aligned resilient targets. IRENA’s Francesco La Camera emphasizes: “En
ergy transition demands climate reality for smart investments and security.”
Four indicators—wind/solar capacity factors, hydropower proxy, demand proxy—reveal interactions demanding action.
Key Questions Answered
2024 temperature anomaly? 1.55°C above pre-industrial—hottest year recorded.
Biggest regional swings? Southern Africa wind/solar gains; South Asia demand +16%.
Forecast accuracy? ECMWF excels predicting solar potential, electricity needs months ahead.
Q&A: Climate-Renewable Dynamics
Q: Why now critical?
A: 4,400+ GW capacity amplifies climate sensitivity at scale.
Q: Hydropower impacts?
A: East Africa surplus; Southern Africa, South America deficits.
Q: COP28 relevance?
A: Climate data essential for tripling renewables, doubling efficiency.
FAQ
Ocean heat role?
Amplified extremes across wind, solar, hydro, demand.
Data indicators used?
Wind/solar capacity factors, precipitation hydropower proxy, temperature demand proxy.
Investment implications?
Forecasts guide resilient siting, grid planning, cross-border trade.
Global demand shift?
+4% above 1991–2020 average from heat variability.
