A new Ipsos poll indicates that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. However, when voters are forced to choose between Harris and Trump, the contest becomes a dead heat.
According to the poll, 42% of registered voters support Harris, while 37% back Trump. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garners 4% of the vote and 2% support other candidates. Meanwhile, 3% of voters are undecided or chose not to answer the question. This data reflects a shift from earlier in the election cycle, where uncertainty around Biden was more pronounced.
SHIFT IN VOTER SUPPORT
Analysis from this longitudinal study suggests Harris has gained support from those previously unsure about Biden and those who were not registered to vote in the spring. Conversely, Trump has seen a slight increase in support from likely voters.
HARRIS HAS A SLIGHT EDGE OVER TRUMP
In a direct comparison, Trump leads Harris 49% to 35% when voters who do not support either candidate are pushed to choose. The overall race is extremely close, with a combined ballot showing Harris at 49% and Trump at 47%.
MEDIA INFLUENCE ON VOTER PERCEPTIONS
The poll also highlights how media consumption impacts voter preferences. Conservative media watchers overwhelmingly support Trump (95%), while most mainstream media consumers back Harris (75%). Digital and local news followers are split, and social media users lean towards Trump (54% to 39%).
CANDIDATE PERCEPTIONS AND ISSUE PRIORITIZATION
Trump is perceived as weird, patriotic, and brave, while Harris is viewed as moral, intelligent, and caring. Among conservative media followers, Trump is seen as braver, whereas Harris is viewed as more moral and intelligent by mainstream media consumers.
KEY ISSUES IN THE ELECTION
The economy and immigration are the top concerns for Americans, with Trump perceived as having better plans for these issues. Inflation (50%) is the top priority, followed by immigration (33%) and political extremism (24%). Harris is favoured over Trump for addressing political extremism, abortion, and healthcare.
The Ipsos poll underscores the tight nature of the 2024 presidential race. Despite Harris’ slight lead, the competition remains intense, influenced heavily by media coverage and voter perceptions on key issues. As the election approaches, both candidates will need to address these concerns and solidify their support to secure victory.
