The world is inching dangerously close to a critical tipping point. According to a new forecast from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), global temperatures between 2025 and 2029 are likely to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold agreed under the Paris Agreement.
The WMO report shows a staggering 86% chance that at least one year in this five-year span will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. It also finds an 80% chance that one year will surpass 2024 — currently the warmest on record.
NEAR-CERTAIN WARMING BRINGS GREATER CLIMATE RISKS
The WMO predicts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average. The five-year average warming is now 70% likely to exceed 1.5°C — a sharp rise from 47% just a year ago.
Each incremental rise in temperature intensifies extreme weather. Expect more deadly heatwaves, devastating floods, prolonged droughts, ocean heating, and melting glaciers.
ARCTIC WARMING 3.5X FASTER THAN GLOBAL AVERAGE
Nowhere is climate change moving faster than the Arctic. Over the next five winters, the Arctic will warm 2.4°C above the 1991–2020 average — more than 3.5 times the global mean.
Sea ice is also predicted to decline further in critical regions like the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas. Meanwhile, rainfall patterns are shifting: wetter in northern Europe and the Sahel, drier in the Amazon.
LONG-TERM FORECAST SHOWS ONGOING CLIMATE DETERIORATION
The forecast, compiled by the UK Met Office as part of WMO’s Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Prediction, reflects a convergence of data from leading climate centers.
These scientific predictions are crucial to understanding our trajectory. If global temperatures consistently exceed 1.5°C, it would mark a fundamental failure to meet the Paris goals.
TEMPORARY VS LONG-TERM BREACHES: WHAT IT MEANS
The Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal is based on long-term averages, typically over 20 years. Temporary breaches are not the same as permanent overshoot — but they signal growing danger.
WMO’s “State of the Global Climate 2024” showed that 2024 likely became the first calendar year to pass 1.5°C. The global mean temperature reached 1.55°C above the pre-industrial baseline.
WMO AND IPCC CALL FOR URGENT ACTION
WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett warned that no respite is in sight. “These forecasts show worsening impacts on our economies, ecosystems, and daily lives,” she said.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines global warming levels over 20-year means. Current warming for 2015–2034 is expected to average 1.44°C, with a 90% confidence range of 1.22–1.54°C.
NATIONS URGED TO DELIVER STRONGER CLIMATE PLANS AT COP30
As countries prepare for COP30, the stakes could not be higher. Updated national climate action plans, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), must align with these grim forecasts.
Every fraction of warming avoided reduces the severity of impacts. From sea-level rise to agriculture disruption, the cost of delay is human and planetary survival.
