Public opinion about the economy is strongly tied to both economic performance and political change. Around the world, people’s perceptions of their economy often depend on political alignment. These perceptions are also based on actual economic indicators.
A new global analysis based on surveys in 25 countries in 2025 and 36 countries in 2024 shows a striking pattern. In nearly every nation surveyed, supporters of the governing party are far more likely to describe the national economy as strong. They are more inclined to do so than others. These differences underscore how partisanship shapes economic sentiment, often more than objective measures like GDP or inflation.
Supporters of Governing Parties View Economies More Positively
Across most surveyed nations, those who support the party in power report greater confidence in their country’s economy. This pattern is clear in Greece. Seventy-one percent of New Democracy supporters say the economy is doing well. Only 9 percent of those who do not back the ruling party agree.
Large political divides also appear in Hungary, Argentina, and Poland. In these countries, governing party supporters are significantly more optimistic about their national economies than nonsupporters. This dynamic highlights how political loyalty often influences perceptions of economic well-being. It shapes how citizens interpret data. It also affects how they judge national progress.
How Views of the Economy Shift After Elections
Public confidence in the economy tends to shift dramatically after elections that bring a change of power. Supporters of newly elected governments often become more positive. In contrast, backers of the ousted party see the economy in a more negative light.
In the United States, following the 2024 elections, Republicans gained control of both Congress and the presidency. In spring 2024, only 17 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said the economy was doing well. By spring 2025, that number had risen to 50 percent. Meanwhile, positive economic ratings among Democrats fell sharply from 53 percent to 19 percent over the same period.
In the United Kingdom, the Labour Party’s 2024 victory produced a similar effect. Positive views of the economy doubled among Labour supporters between 2024 and 2025. Conservative supporters’ views remained steady, with about one in four continuing to rate the economy positively.
Italy and Australia Reflect the Same Pattern
In Italy, where a center-right coalition led by the Brothers of Italy won the 2022 elections, optimism among their supporters rose sharply. Positive views of the national economy jumped from 11 percent in 2022 to 30 percent in 2023. In contrast, supporters of the ousted Five Star Movement and Democratic Party saw little change. About a quarter maintained a positive view.
Australia’s 2022 federal elections reversed the trend. The Liberal-National coalition lost its majority, and by 2023, optimism among its supporters fell from 65 percent to 41 percent. For Labor Party supporters, now in power, the share with a positive economic outlook remained steady at 42 percent, showing stability after victory.
Latin America and Europe Show Strong Post-Election Shifts
Mexico offers another clear example. When Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena party came to power in 2018, positive views among supporters rose from 25 percent to 54 percent within a year. Meanwhile, backers of the defeated Institutional Revolutionary Party maintained similar economic opinions before and after the election.
In France, after Emmanuel Macron’s 2017 victory, optimism surged. Among his En Marche supporters, positive ratings of the economy tripled from 21 percent in 2017 to 69 percent in 2018. Supporters of the Socialist Party, led by Macron’s predecessor François Hollande, also became slightly more positive, though the change was much smaller.
Economic Perceptions Not Always Linked to Real Performance
Interestingly, the analysis shows that perceptions of the economy do not always align with objective economic indicators. Measures such as GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and income inequality only weakly correlate with how citizens rate their national economies.
In many countries, people’s feelings about the economy are influenced more by politics than by the economy’s actual performance. However, there is some connection between GDP growth and long-term optimism — particularly regarding whether future generations will be better off financially than their parents.
GDP Growth and Optimism About the Future
Across the 36 countries surveyed in 2024, faster-growing economies tended to have more optimistic populations. In nations with higher GDP growth, people were more likely to say that children will enjoy better financial futures than their parents.
India provides a strong example. With the highest GDP growth among all surveyed countries, three in four Indian adults said children would be better off financially than their parents. In contrast, Japan’s slower growth was reflected in its outlook — only 16 percent of Japanese adults shared that belief.
This link suggests that while short-term perceptions of the economy may be politically driven, long-term economic optimism still relies on tangible growth.
Middle-Income Countries More Optimistic Than High-Income Ones
The study found that people in middle-income countries are generally more positive about their economic future than those in wealthier nations.
In the 18 middle-income countries surveyed, GDP grew by a median of 3.4 percent in 2024. In these countries, a median of 44 percent of respondents believed children would be financially better off. In contrast, the 18 high-income countries surveyed had a median GDP growth rate of 1.3 percent. Only 26 percent of their citizens believed the next generation would fare better economically.
This optimism gap may stem from the faster pace of economic change and development in emerging markets, where improvements in living standards are more visible.
How Major Economic Shocks Influence Public Opinion
Public attitudes toward the economy often respond sharply to crises. After the 2008 global financial crisis, economic confidence fell dramatically across political lines in countries such as Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom.
Similarly, following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, pessimism about economic conditions surged worldwide. Regardless of ideology, citizens viewed the economy far more negatively, reflecting the universal impact of the disruption.
These patterns show that while political affiliation shapes perceptions in stable times, major economic shocks can unify public opinion, at least temporarily, around shared concerns.
The Complex Relationship Between Politics and Economics
The global survey reveals that economic attitudes are shaped by a complex mix of factors — including partisanship, policy outcomes, and real economic performance. Supporters of ruling parties tend to view economic conditions more favorably, while opposition supporters often emphasize challenges and weaknesses.
This divergence is particularly visible after elections, when public optimism and pessimism often flip depending on which side of the political divide gains power. Yet despite these political shifts, people across countries remain more hopeful about their long-term economic future when growth is tangible and widespread.
Key Takeaways
- Political alignment strongly influences how people view their national economies.
- After elections, optimism often rises among supporters of winning parties and falls among opposition groups.
- GDP growth correlates with optimism about future generations’ financial prospects.
- Middle-income countries tend to be more hopeful about the future than high-income nations.
- Major economic crises temporarily reduce partisan differences, creating shared pessimism.
Final Thoughts
Public opinion about the economy reflects more than financial data. It mirrors how citizens perceive leadership, fairness, and opportunity in their countries. While political loyalties drive short-term shifts in sentiment, real economic progress continues to define long-term optimism.
The 2025 survey findings underscore a global truth: economic confidence depends as much on politics and perception as on actual prosperity. As governments face future challenges, balancing performance and trust will remain central to sustaining economic optimism worldwide.
