Glaciers are melting at unprecedented rates globally. The Alps could reach peak glacier loss between 2033 and 2041, potentially losing nearly all ice, warns an international research team led by ETH Zurich. Worldwide, annual glacier disappearances could peak at 4,000 per year around 2055 under severe warming scenarios.
This groundbreaking study, published 15 December 2025 in Nature Climate Change, tracks individual glacier disappearances rather than just mass loss. Lead author Lander Van Tricht states, “For the first time, we’ve pinpointed when every glacier on Earth will vanish.”
Alps Face Catastrophic Ice Loss Under Current Policies
Central Europe’s glaciers face dire prospects. At +2.7°C warming — aligned with current policies — only 110 glaciers (3% of today’s total) would survive in the Alps by 2100. At +4°C, just 20 would remain. Even medium-sized glaciers like the Rhône would shrink to remnants, while the Aletsch Glacier could fragment entirely.
This continues Switzerland’s trend: over 1,000 glaciers vanished between 1973 and 2016 alone, per recent ETH research.
Global Projections: Small Glaciers Most Vulnerable
Regions with numerous small, low-elevation glaciers face the greatest threats. More than half of glaciers in the Alps, Caucasus, Rocky Mountains, Andes, and African highlands could disappear within 10-20 years.
Key survival estimates by 2100:
| Warming Scenario | Alps Remaining | Rocky Mountains | Andes | Central Asia | Global Total |
| +1.5°C | 430 (12%) | 4,400 (25%) | ~43% | ~43% | ~100,000 |
| +2.7°C | 110 (3%) | – | – | – | – |
| +4.0°C | 20 (1%) | 101 (1%) | 950 (6%) | 2,500 (4%) | ~18,000 |
Every degree of warming doubles extinction risks during “Peak https://indianf.com/?s=glacierGlacier Extinction” — when annual losses hit maximum rates.
Peak Glacier Extinction: A New Warning Metric
The study introduces “Peak Glacier Extinction,” the year of maximum annual disappearances. At +1.5°C (Paris Agreement goal), it hits 2041 with ~2,000 glaciers lost yearly. At +4°C, the peak arrives later (2055) but claims ~4,000 glaciers annually as larger ice masses melt too.
“Every tenth of a degree matters — twice as many glaciers die at higher warming levels,” says co-author Professor Daniel Farinotti.
Implications Beyond Sea Level: Culture, Tourism, Water Security
While small glaciers contribute little to sea-level rise, their complete loss devastates local economies and cultures. Tourism valleys lose iconic attractions, water supplies dwindle, and natural hazards increase.
The research supports initiatives like the Global Glacier Casualty List, preserving stories of lost glaciers such as Switzerland’s Birch and Pizol.
Q&A: Key Insights from the Glacier Disappearance Study
Q: When will the Alps reach peak glacier loss?
A: Between 2033-2041, potentially losing more glaciers annually than ever before.
Q: What makes small glaciers most vulnerable?
A: Lower elevations and proximity to equator expose them to faster warming and heat extremes.
Q: How does this study differ from previous research?
A: It tracks individual glacier numbers and disappearance timelines, not just mass or area loss.
Q: Can any glaciers survive high warming scenarios?
A: Yes, but dramatically fewer — globally ~18,000 at +4°C versus ~100,000 at +1.5°C.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1: What is “Peak Glacier Extinction”?
A1: The year when annual glacier disappearances worldwide reach their maximum rate before declining.
Q2: Which regions lose glaciers fastest?
A2: Alps, Caucasus, Rocky Mountains, low-latitude Andes, and African highlands face >50% loss soon.
Q3: How many glaciers exist globally today?
A3: Hundreds of thousands, with small glaciers comprising most of the total number.
Q4: Does glacier loss mainly affect sea levels?
A4: Small glacier loss impacts local water, tourism, and culture more than global sea rise.
Q5: What policy changes could save more glaciers?
A5: Ambitious +1.5°C pathways preserve ~100,000 glaciers versus ~18,000 at +4°C.
This study delivers a stark timeline for glacier extinction, urging immediate climate action. While ice mass loss continues post-peak, every glacier saved preserves vital water, culture, and natural heritage for future generations
