Natural climate patterns, like El Niño, are causing tropical glaciers to lose ice at alarming rates. The Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC) in the Peruvian Andes has shrunk significantly due to warming from El Niño events, and researchers fear the situation will worsen with climate change.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years. It causes much warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific, which in turn affects weather patterns worldwide. In southern Peru, El Niño events have led to severe droughts and unusual warmth, impacting the Quelccaya Ice Cap.
STUDY REVEALS SHRINKING SNOW COVER ON THE QUELCCAYA ICE CAP
The QIC has long been known to react to climate shifts. However, the extent of El Niño’s impact on its ice loss was unclear. A new study, led by Kara Lamantia from the Byrd Polar and Research Climate Center at Ohio State University, sheds light on this issue. Using NASA Landsat satellite images, researchers tracked changes in snow-covered areas on the QIC over four decades.
Between 1985 and 2022, the QIC lost around 58% of its snow cover and 37% of its total area. This drastic reduction highlights how vulnerable tropical glaciers are to short-term climate anomalies.
FIRST AUTOMATED SNOW-COVER DETECTION METHOD
The study, published in The Cryosphere, marks a breakthrough in glacier research. It is the first to automate the detection of snow-covered areas on the QIC. Traditionally, this kind of detection required labor-intensive field measurements or manually tracing satellite images.
By developing an algorithm that uses near-infrared imagery, researchers created a reliable method to distinguish snow from ice. “This process allows us to gather consistent data on the QIC’s health,” Lamantia explained.
UNDERSTANDING HOW GLACIERS GAIN AND LOSE ICE
Glaciers gain mass by accumulating snow and ice. They lose it when more ice melts than is gained. Researchers measure the ratio of snow-covered areas to the glacier’s total area. This helps them determine if the glacier is gaining or losing mass. On the QIC, the snow-covered area ratio drops significantly during El Niño events, indicating massive ice loss.
El Niño’s Effect on Peruvian Glaciers
Southern Peru experiences extreme seasonal changes, with wet and dry seasons dictating glacier health. During the wet season, snow replenishes glaciers. However, El Niño events disrupt this cycle by bringing warmer, drier conditions. “When El Niño hits, southern Peru doesn’t get the snowfall it needs,” said Lamantia. “This leads to less snow to replace what the glacier loses.”
CLIMATE CHANGE INTENSIFY EL NIÑO EVENTS
Climate scientists predict that El Niño events will become stronger and last longer as global warming accelerates. This means tropical glaciers like the QIC could face even more severe ice loss. Researchers warn that the QIC’s snow cover may not fully recover during La Niña events, which traditionally bring cooler weather.
DIRE FUTURE OF THE QUELCCAYA ICE CAP
The QIC has been in steady decline due to rising global temperatures. “Anthropogenic warming has pushed the QIC into a consistent linear decline,” said Lamantia. As the freezing line continues to rise and snow cover shrinks, projections suggest that the QIC’s snow cover could vanish by 2080. By the end of the century, it may become a wasteland of ice, much like Mount Kilimanjaro.
CONSEQUENCES FOR HIGH-MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES
As glaciers retreat, communities that rely on them for water face a grim future. High-mountain populations in southern Peru depend on glaciers for drinking water, agriculture, and hydropower. When glaciers shrink, these vital resources become scarce, leading to water shortages and economic hardships.
“Glacier loss puts these communities in jeopardy,” Lamantia warned. “Snow loss can quickly diminish water supplies, threatening the livelihood of those living in the Andes.”
A CALL TO ACTION ON WATER CONSERVATION
The increasing intensity and duration of El Niño events pose additional challenges for water management. Lamantia stressed the importance of preparing for a future with less water. “We need to be clever about how we use and conserve water,” she said. Researchers hope that the data collected from studies like this one can inform better water resource management and policy decisions.
Funding and Future Research
This study was supported by the National Science Foundation, the Heising-Simons Foundation, and the Volo Foundation. The research team, which included Lonnie Thompson and Bryan Mark from Ohio State University and Laura J. Larocca from Arizona State University, plans to expand their work on tropical glaciers.
Future studies will aim to model how other short-term weather events impact glacier vulnerability. This will help scientists understand the complex interactions between climate change and glacier health.
