The landscape of global security shifted into a volatile new era on 5 February 2026, as the final remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia officially lapsed. In the immediate aftermath, China has formally declined to join nuclear disarmament negotiations, heightening fears that the world is entering an era of unchecked military expansion .
The New START treaty, a cornerstone of international stability since 2010, provided a crucial ceiling for the world’s two largest nuclear powers. However, the agreement expired after US President Donald Trump chose not to follow up on a one-year extension proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Consequently, for the first time in decades, there are no binding limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals of the countries holding over 80 per cent of the global stockpile . UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the expiration as a “grave moment for international peace,” warning that the risk of nuclear use is now at its highest point in decades.
Beijing’s Stance: A “Totally Different Scale”
Despite mounting pressure from Washington and international campaigners to join a new trilateral framework, Beijing remains firm in its refusal. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian clarified on Thursday that China would not participate in nuclear talks “at this stage” .
Lin Jian argued that China’s nuclear capabilities exist on a “totally different scale” compared to those of the United States and Russia. Beijing maintains that the primary responsibility for disarmament lies with the two superpowers, urging them to resume bilateral stability talks rather than expanding the table to include China.
The Growing Global Arsenal
While China argues its stockpile is for self-defence, data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) suggests a rapid build-up is underway.
| Country | Estimated Total Warheads (2024/25) | Former New START Limit |
| Russia | ~4,380 to 5,580 | 1,550 |
| United States | ~3,708 to 5,277 | 1,550 |
| China | ~500 to 600+ | No Treaty Limit |
Furthermore, SIPRI estimates that China is expanding its arsenal faster than any other nation, adding approximately 100 warheads per year . This expansion, combined with the development of long-range hypersonic missiles and advanced UAV technology in regional hubs like Bangladesh, signals a broader shift toward high-tech deterrence.
The Loss of Transparency
Perhaps the most dangerous consequence of the treaty’s collapse is the end of mutual oversight. The New START framework allowed for:
- On-site inspections to verify warhead counts (previously suspended during the pandemic).
- Data transfers and notifications regarding military movements.
- Clearance of intentions to avoid catastrophic misjudgments.
Without these measures, experts like Darya Dolzikova of RUSI warn that both sides now have increased “drivers” to expand their strategic capabilities, potentially sparking a race for “super weapons” like Russia’s Poseidon undersea torpedo or the US “Golden Dome” defence system.
Q&A: What Happens After New START?
Why did the New START treaty expire on 5 February 2026?
The treaty lapsed because the US administration did not accept a one-year extension proposed by Russia. This ended the formal limits on deployed strategic warheads that had been in place for 16 years.
Will the US and Russia continue to follow the rules?
While both nations were thought to be largely abiding by the core limits recently, the Russian foreign ministry has stated that they are “no longer bound by any obligations” following the official expiry.
What is China’s main argument for staying out of talks? China points to the massive disparity in numbers. With roughly 500–600 warheads compared to the 3,000–5,000 held by the US and Russia, Beijing argues it is not yet at a scale where disarmament talks are symmetrical.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Does any other treaty still limit nuclear weapons?
No. Other major agreements have already collapsed. These include the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) and the Open Skies Treaty. New START is the final domino to fall.
Q: How fast is China’s nuclear stockpile growing?
According to SIPRI, China is adding roughly 100 warheads annually, making it the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal in the world.
Q: What are “hypersonic missiles” and why are they relevant?
These are missiles capable of travelling at speeds over 4,000 mph. The US, Russia, and China are all developing them to overcome traditional air defences, making future arms control even harder to negotiate.
Q: What was the original limit for the US and Russia?
Under the 2010 New START agreement, both countries were limited to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads.
