Sixty percent of Earth’s land area is now outside the safe biosphere zone. Thirty-eight percent is considered in a high-risk state, a new study said. The research was led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and BOKU University in Vienna. It highlights how centuries of human land use—from farming to energy production—have destabilized ecosystems worldwide.
The findings, published in One Earth, map the planetary boundary of “functional biosphere integrity” across regions. They also map through time dating back to the year 1600.
What is functional biosphere integrity?
Functional biosphere integrity refers to the ability of plant life to regulate carbon, water, and nutrient flows. These flows are managed through photosynthesis and are essential to stable ecosystems. It joins biodiversity loss and climate change as a core boundary in the Planetary Boundaries framework. This framework defines a safe operating space for humanity.
“Human demand for biomass continues to grow—whether for food, raw materials, or bioenergy. It’s vital we quantify the strain we’re already putting on the biosphere,” said lead author Fabian Stenzel of PIK.
Measuring the strain
The study used two indicators to track biosphere health:
- Human appropriation of biomass productivity – how much plant energy (through crops, timber, residues) is diverted to human use
- Risk of ecosystem destabilization – structural changes in vegetation and disruptions to carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles
Researchers compared these measures to known ecological thresholds. They determined whether regions were in a safe zone, an increasing risk zone, or a high-risk zone.
Historical trends: from 1600 to today
The team’s model (LPJmL), which simulates water, carbon, and nitrogen flows, provided year-by-year insights since 1600.
- 1600: Mid-latitudes already showed early signs of biosphere stress
- 1900: 37% of land exceeded safe limits, with 14% already in high risk—driven largely by industrialization and agriculture
- Today: 60% of land is outside the safe zone, and 38% in high risk
The most severe impacts are in Europe, Asia, and North America, where centuries of land conversion have reshaped ecosystems.
A call for integrated climate policy
“This first world map of biosphere integrity overshoot is a breakthrough,” said Johan Rockström, PIK Director and study co-author. “It shows how biomass use and ecological disruption are intertwined with climate stability. Governments must address biosphere protection and climate action as a single overarching issue.”
The research underscores that human activity disrupted ecosystems long before global warming accelerated. Safeguarding the biosphere is as urgent as cutting carbon emissions.
