In 2023, Afghanistan’s opium production plummeted by 95% following the 2022 drug ban. Historically, Afghanistan has been responsible for over 80% of global illicit opium production. If the ban is sustained, shortages will be felt in the main destination markets for Afghan opiates, says World Drug Report 2024 by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).
IMMEDIATE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON AFGHAN FARMERS
The sharp reduction in opium production had immediate and severe consequences for vulnerable rural communities in Afghanistan. Farmers‘ incomes, derived from selling harvested opium to traders, dropped by over 92%. The estimated earnings fell from $1,360 million for the 2022 harvest to just $110 million for the 2023 harvest.
FUTURE OPIUM PRODUCTION AND MARKET ADJUSTMENTS
Preliminary observations suggest that opium production in 2024 may be slightly higher but will likely remain far below pre-ban levels. It is unlikely that existing stocks from Afghanistan or increased opium production in other countries will compensate for the shortfall in the long run.
As a result, heroin availability is expected to decline. The demand market is expected to adjust differently depending on national circumstances. The demand for opiate-related treatment services is likely to rise. However, if these services are insufficient, heroin users may switch to other opioids. This could lead to the emergence of new, more potent synthetic opioids, significantly increasing overdose risks.
Impact on Methamphetamine Production
It is less clear whether the April 2022 drug ban also impacted Afghan methamphetamine production and exports. By the end of 2023, seizures in neighbouring countries, which report that most methamphetamine continues to originate in Afghanistan, did not indicate a slowdown in methamphetamine trafficking.
Afghanistan’s drastic reduction in opium production has profound implications for global drug markets and local communities. While future production may see slight increases, the long-term shortfall is expected to impact heroin availability and potentially lead to a rise in synthetic opioid use. The situation calls for vigilant monitoring and adaptive strategies to manage the evolving drug landscape.
