In 2022, 21 million tonnes of macroplastics, plastics larger than 5mm, leaked into the environment, indicating a nearly one-third increase from the previous decade. Additionally, plastics contribute 3.8% of total global greenhouse gas emissions, reaching 1.9 GtCO2e in 2022, said a recent OECD interim report.
LIFECYCLE IMPACTS OF PLASTICS AND URGENT POLICY ACTIONS
The report “Towards Eliminating Plastic Pollution by 2040: A Policy Scenario Analysis,” underscores the diverse lifecycle impacts of plastics, emphasizing the need for immediate and comprehensive policy actions. Plastics’ contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and their environmental consequences necessitate urgent international strategies. The interim report provides preliminary insights into the benefits of proactive measures and highlights the costs associated with delayed or limited actions.
FUTURE PROJECTIONS AND SCENARIOS
The report outlines potential scenarios based on different policy approaches:
Baseline Scenario: Without significant policy interventions, plastics use is projected to grow, leading to a 50% increase in macroplastics leakage by 2040, reaching 30 million tonnes per year, with 9 million tonnes entering aquatic environments.
Moderate International Alignment: A scenario focusing on downstream interventions in non-OECD countries and comprehensive action across the lifecycle for OECD countries could stabilize primary plastics use by 2040, but plastic leakage would still be significant at 12 million tonnes.
Global Ambition with Early, Stringent, and Coordinated Policy Action: The most optimistic scenario involves global ambition, stringent policies, and early action, resulting in a 25% reduction in plastic waste generation by 2040 below the baseline. Mismanaged waste would be nearly eliminated, and plastic leakage would be drastically reduced to 1.2 million tonnes.
CALL FOR INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION AND TARGETS
As international negotiations progress, policymakers and negotiators are urged to adopt comprehensive policy approaches addressing the full lifecycle of plastics. The report emphasizes the growing political momentum for achieving a common, international target to eliminate plastic pollution by 2040. The full report, with a more detailed analysis and policy guidance, is expected in the first half of 2024.
