Sea levels could rise between 0.5 and 1.9 meters by 2100 under a high-emission scenario, warns researchers from NTU Singapore and TU Delft, Netherlands. This alarming projection surpasses the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimate of 0.6 to 1.0 meters by 90 centimeters at its upper range, significantly impacting sea level predictions.
The study highlights the direct link between escalating CO2 emissions and rising sea levels. If emissions continue unchecked, coastal regions worldwide face catastrophic flooding and habitat loss.
IMPROVED PROJECTIONS USING THE “FUSION” APPROACH
Researchers developed a new “fusion” method to address uncertainties in sea-level rise projections. This method aims to refine our understanding of future sea levels.
How It Works:
- Combines existing climate models and expert insights.
- Accounts for poorly understood processes like ice sheet collapse.
- Produces a more reliable, comprehensive range of projections.
“Current models focus on well-understood phenomena like glacier melting,” said Benjamin Grandey, senior research fellow at NTU Singapore. “But, they often ignore uncertain events like abrupt ice shelf collapse.”
“Experts, on the other hand, estimate the likelihood of these unpredictable scenarios, complementing model-based findings.”
FILLING THE GAPS IN IPCC PROJECTIONS
The IPCC has provided likely projections (66% probability) but lacked very likely ranges (90% probability) for extreme sealevel rise. The NTU team’s “fusion” approach bridges this gap. It offers critical insights for policymakers. These insights are invaluable for risk managers dealing with potential high sea levels.
Uncertain Events and Their Impact
Current sea-level rise predictions rely on:
- Melting glaciers.
- Thermal expansion of seawater.
- Abrupt ice shelf collapses, which remain poorly understood.
These varying factors have led to inconsistent projections, complicating risk assessments related to rising sea levels.
HIGH EMISSIONS AND THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO
If global CO2 emissions continue to rise, the likelihood of reaching the high-end projection increases. Coastal cities, islands, and vulnerable ecosystems face existential threats under this scenario due to the rising sea levels.
GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS OF RISING SEAS
- Economic Costs: Trillions of dollars in infrastructure damage.
- Displacement: Millions forced to migrate from coastal areas.
- Ecosystem Loss: Disruption of marine and coastal biodiversity.
WHAT CAN BE DONE?
- Reduce Emissions: Accelerate global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
- Adaptation Strategies: Invest in resilient infrastructure, coastal defenses, and sustainable urban planning.
- Policy Action: Use reliable projections like those provided by the “fusion” approach to guide international climate policies and address sea level risks.