Nearly three-quarters of the global population may face dramatic changes in extreme temperatures and rainfall within the next 20 years if greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced. The study conducted by the CICERO Center for International Climate Research and supported by the University of Reading highlights the severe impact of global warming combined with natural weather variations.
Published in Nature Geoscience, the study emphasizes how global warming can intensify extreme weather events.
EMISSION SCENARIOS AND THEIR IMPACT
The study forecasts that:
- With high emissions: About 70% of the global population will experience extreme changes in temperature and precipitation.
- With strong emissions mitigation: This number could drop to 20%, affecting approximately 1.5 billion people.
Dr. Carley Iles, lead author, notes, “We focus on regional changes to better understand their impact on people and ecosystems compared to global averages.”
UNPRECEDENTED CONDITIONS AND RISKS
The study’s climate models predict significant shifts in both temperature and precipitation extremes. Such rapid changes could lead to unprecedented weather conditions and intensify the impacts of climate change.
- Heat waves: Increased heat stress, higher mortality rates, reduced agricultural yields, and disruptions to power plants and transportation.
- Precipitation Extremes: Flooding, damage to infrastructure and crops, increased erosion, and reduced water quality.
These extreme events pose substantial risks to societies, especially when multiple hazards occur simultaneously.
IMPACT OF AIR POLLUTION CLEANUP
The study also highlights the effects of rapid air pollution cleanup, particularly in Asia. Dr. Laura Wilcox explains, “While cleaning the air is crucial for health, it may accelerate extreme weather changes due to the interaction with global warming.”
Dr. Bjørn H. Samset emphasizes the need for urgent climate adaptation strategies. “With rapid changes affecting up to 1.5 billion people, we must prepare for unprecedented extreme events within the next 1-2 decades,” he warns.