Physicists have calculated that the impact of human activity on the Earth’s system could lead to unpredictable chaos, beyond the point of return. Led by Alex Bernadini of the University of Porto in Portugal, a team of physicists used a theory initially designed for modelling superconductivity to demonstrate that there is a finite threshold beyond which restoring equilibrium to Earth’s climate becomes impossible.
The research suggests that continued human activity could push the planet into a state akin to a ‘Hothouse Earth’ from which recovery is highly unlikely. Their findings were presented in a preprint paper in April 2022 on the arXiv preprint server and have yet to undergo peer review.
LOSING ALL HOPE
Physicist Orfeu Bertolami explained the gravity of the situation, saying, “If the Earth System gets into the region of chaotic behaviour, we will lose all hope of somehow fixing the problem.” The increase in extreme weather events, such as droughts, heat waves, and severe phenomena, is attributed to human activities, including the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and increased farming.
This alarming trend has led to the proposal of a new geological epoch known as the Anthropocene, characterized by humanity’s significant impact on the Earth’s entire system, including the geosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. The Anthropocene is seen as succeeding the Holocene, which began approximately 11,700 years ago.
ANTHROPOCENE
To understand the transition from the Holocene to the Anthropocene, the researchers employed phase transition modelling, a concept used to describe how a system changes from one state to another. Although the Earth system is not a material, this approach has been used to predict climate shifts. The team applied the Ginzburg-Landau theory, developed for modelling superconductivity, to the Anthropocene based on temperature starting from a Holocene equilibrium point.
Their research considered the limitations imposed by finite resources and habitat on Earth, aiming to map potential outcomes of the Anthropocene transition. Using a logistic map, a tool for exploring complex outcomes and chaotic behaviour, they found that Earth’s future trajectory may follow a regular, predictable path leading to climate stabilization at higher temperatures, but still problematic.
However, at the extreme end, Earth could descend into chaos, marked by extreme seasonal fluctuations and unpredictable weather events that defy forecasting. Such a scenario would make it exceedingly challenging, if not impossible, to return to a stable climate.
The researchers emphasized that while this outcome is not certain, it is a genuine possibility. They urged the consideration of this risk in strategies designed to combat climate change and manage the Earth’s system in the future.