About 3.79 billion people will face extreme heat by 2050, warns a University of Oxford study. This represents nearly half of the global population. Researchers published these findings in Nature Sustainability. The study focuses on a scenario where global warming reaches 2.0°C. Climate scientists believe this scenario is increasingly likely to occur.
Most climate impacts will happen early as the world passes the 1.5°C target. This target was originally set by the Paris Agreement. In 2010, extreme heat affected 23% of the world’s population. This figure will grow to 41% over the next few decades. Consequently, billions of people will face dangerously high temperatures.
Nations at the Highest Risk
The study predicts significant temperature increases in specific regions. These include the Central African Republic, Nigeria, and South Sudan. Laos and Brazil will also see major spikes in heat. Furthermore, the largest affected populations live in India and Pakistan. Other highly impacted nations include Indonesia, Bangladesh, and the Philippines.
The Surprise Impact on Colder Countries
Countries with colder climates will face a massive relative change. Uncomfortably hot days could more than double in some regions. Ireland may see a 230% increase in such days. Norway faces a 200% increase, while the UK and Sweden face 150%. Austria and Canada could see their hot days double.
Buildings in these countries are predominantly designed for cold conditions. Therefore, even moderate temperature rises will have severe impacts. These regions often lack the resources to manage extreme heat effectively.
An Urgent Need for Adaptation
Lead author Dr Jesus Lizana emphasises the need for early action. Significant adaptation measures must be implemented before reaching 1.5°C. For instance, many homes may require air conditioning within five years. However, temperatures will continue to rise even after these installations.
We must decarbonise the building sector to reach net-zero by 2050. At the same time, we need more resilient adaptation strategies. Dr Radhika Khosla describes the findings as a “wake-up call”. Overshooting 1.5°C will impact education, health, and farming. It will also trigger changes in global migration patterns.
Future Energy and Data Tools
Extreme heat will cause a surge in energy demand for cooling. This shift will likely increase global carbon emissions. Conversely, heating demand in Canada and Switzerland will decrease.
The study provides an open-source dataset to help with planning. It includes 30 global maps showing climate intensity. These tools allow policymakers to incorporate climate data into sustainability goals.
Q&A: Understanding the Heat Crisis
How many people will be affected by extreme heat? Nearly 3.79 billion people will live with extreme heat by 2050 if warming hits 2.0°C.
Which countries face the largest relative change? Colder nations like Ireland, Norway, and the UK will see the highest percentage increases in hot days.
What is the “wake-up call” mentioned by researchers? The study warns that exceeding 1.5°C of warming will have unprecedented effects on health, education, and migration.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why are colder countries more vulnerable to heat? Their infrastructure and buildings are designed to keep heat in, not to keep it out.
What is the Paris Agreement target? The agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Will air conditioning be necessary? Yes, many homes may need to install cooling systems within the next five years to adapt.
Where can policymakers find data for planning? The study includes an open-source dataset with 30 global maps at 60km resolution.