The spread of false or misleading information online has become alarmingly easy. The internet’s anonymity and the rise of advanced tools, including artificial intelligence, allow bad actors to manipulate the truth effortlessly. In a world increasingly saturated with disinformation, understanding how these falsehoods proliferate is essential for effectively combating them.
In a study published in AIP Advances by AIP Publishing, researchers from Shandong Normal University have developed a novel rumour propagation model, drawing inspiration from nuclear reactions. This innovative model offers fresh perspectives on how online disinformation spreads and proposes new strategies for mitigating its impact.
LIMITATIONS OF TRADITIONAL MODELS
#Traditional mathematical models, often adapted from epidemiology, simulate the spread of rumours in a manner similar to the spread of infectious diseases. In these models, rumours act like contagious microbes, spreading passively from one individual to another. While these models are useful, they fail to capture the complexity of real-world rumour propagation.
“Infectious disease models may mostly view the spread of rumours as a passive process of receiving infection, thus ignoring the behavioural and psychological changes of people in the real world, as well as the impact of external events on the spread of rumours,” said Wenrong Zheng, a lead author of the study.
RUMORS AS NEUTRONS: A FISSION-BASED MODEL
The research team proposed a model that likens the spread of rumours to the fission process in nuclear reactors. In this model, rumours behave like neutrons, the particles that initiate nuclear fission. When individuals encounter a rumour, their response—whether to spread it further or not—depends on their personal interests and thresholds for believing the information.
“When individuals encounter rumours, they are influenced by their personal interests and decide whether to spread or whether repeated exposure is needed before spreading,” explained Zheng. This model categorizes individuals based on their susceptibility to rumours, akin to the thresholds in nuclear fission, offering a more nuanced view that mirrors real-world dynamics.
INSIGHTS AND IMPLICATIONS OF THE NEW MODEL
This innovative model provides deeper insights into how disinformation spreads online. One key finding is the relationship between the spread of rumours and the proportion of rational internet users. Zheng emphasized that education plays a crucial role in this dynamic: “The higher the level of education, the easier it is to question rumours when receiving information that is difficult to distinguish between right and wrong.”
PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS FOR GOVERNMENTS AND MEDIA
The research also highlights the importance of early intervention by governments and media organizations in combating disinformation. The model shows that rumours often propagate on a small scale initially, offering a window of opportunity for intervention.
“We have found that rumours propagate on a small scale at the initial stage, so official platforms need to carry out real-time monitoring. When the possibility of rumours is detected, the government or official media should check the content of the rumours and make corrections so rational citizens can effectively inhibit the propagation of rumours,” Zheng suggested.
A PATH FORWARD IN THE FIGHT AGAINST DISINFORMATION
The nuclear fission-inspired model offers a promising new approach to understanding and mitigating the spread of online disinformation. By considering the psychological and behavioural aspects of rumour spreading, alongside the role of external events, this model provides a more accurate representation of how false information spreads in the digital age.
For policymakers, educators, and media professionals, these insights could prove invaluable in developing more effective strategies to combat disinformation. The fight against falsehoods is complex, but with innovative tools like this new model, we can hope to make significant strides in preserving the integrity of information online.
