In 2024, the global nuclear arms race shows no signs of slowing down. With the United States and Russia holding nearly 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons, the geopolitical landscape remains fraught with tension. The modernization and expansion of nuclear arsenals by these and other nuclear-armed states, including China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea, signal a troubling trend. This article explores the key developments in nuclear arsenals and the implications for global security.
THE DOMINANT POWERS: USA AND RUSSIA
Despite their historical dominance, the nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia have remained relatively stable in terms of size. However, Russia is estimated to have deployed 36 more warheads with operational forces than in January 2023. Transparency regarding nuclear forces has declined in both countries following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, leading to heightened debates about nuclear-sharing arrangements.
In 2023, there were public claims that Russia had deployed nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. However, conclusive visual evidence of such deployment is lacking. Both Russia and the USA continue to dismantle over 1,200 warheads each, previously retired from military service.
CHINA’S RAPID EXPANSION
China’s nuclear arsenal is expanding faster than any other country’s. SIPRI estimates that China’s stockpile increased from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024, with expectations for further growth. For the first time, China may be deploying a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime. By the turn of the decade, China could potentially match Russia and the USA in the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), although its overall warhead stockpile will remain smaller.
Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, notes, “China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country. But in nearly all of the nuclear-armed states, there are plans or significant pushes to increase nuclear forces.” This expansion poses significant implications for global strategic stability.
DEVELOPMENTS IN OTHER NUCLEAR-ARMED STATES
United Kingdom
While the UK did not increase its nuclear arsenal in 2023, its stockpile is expected to grow due to a 2021 government decision to raise the limit from 225 to 260 warheads. The UK government has also ceased public disclosures of its nuclear weapon quantities, deployed warheads, and deployed missiles.
France
France continues to advance its nuclear capabilities, developing a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile. France is also refurbishing and upgrading existing systems, ensuring its nuclear forces remain formidable.
South Asia: India and Pakistan
India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2023 and continues to develop new nuclear delivery systems. While Pakistan remains India’s primary focus for its nuclear deterrent, India is increasingly emphasizing longer-range weapons capable of reaching targets throughout China.
Pakistan, too, is developing new types of nuclear delivery systems, maintaining a focus on countering India’s nuclear capabilities. The ongoing development in both countries contributes to regional instability and the risk of nuclear escalation.
NORTH KOREA’S PERSISTENT THREAT
North Korea prioritizes its military nuclear program as a central element of its national security strategy. SIPRI estimates that North Korea has assembled around 50 warheads and possesses enough fissile material for up to 90 warheads, significant increases from January 2023 estimates. While North Korea did not conduct nuclear tests in 2023, it tested a short-range ballistic missile from a rudimentary silo and developed at least two types of land-attack cruise missiles designed for nuclear delivery.
Matt Korda, Associate Researcher with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, warns, “North Korea is putting new emphasis on developing its arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons. There is a growing concern that North Korea might intend to use these weapons very early in a conflict.”
ISRAEL’S QUIET MODERNIZATION
Israel, which does not publicly acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons, is believed to be modernizing its nuclear arsenal. Reports suggest that Israel is upgrading its plutonium production reactor site at Dimona, reinforcing its nuclear capabilities.
The continued modernization and expansion of nuclear arsenals across the world pose significant threats to global security. The lack of transparency, particularly among the leading nuclear powers, exacerbates these risks. As nations like China rapidly expand their arsenals and others like North Korea develop new tactical capabilities, the potential for nuclear conflict increases.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Dominant Powers: The USA and Russia hold nearly 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons, with Russia increasing its deployed warheads in 2023.
China’s Expansion: China’s nuclear arsenal grew significantly in 2023 and is expected to continue expanding rapidly.
Regional Dynamics: India and Pakistan continue to develop new nuclear delivery systems, raising regional tensions.
North Korea’s Threat: North Korea’s growing arsenal and development of tactical nuclear weapons pose severe threats.
Global Transparency: Decreased transparency and public disclosure among nuclear-armed states heighten global security risks.
As the world faces an escalating nuclear arms race, renewed international efforts for arms control and disarmament are imperative to ensure global security and stability.
