In a world where geopolitical tensions persist, the modernization and expansion of nuclear arsenals continue unabated. The nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), and Israel—are all enhancing their nuclear capabilities. According to Key findings of SIPRI Yearbook 2024, these nations are not only modernizing their nuclear arsenals but also deploying new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems at an alarming rate.
CURRENT NUCLEAR ARSENAL INVENTORY
As of January 2024, the total global inventory of nuclear warheads stands at approximately 12,121. Of these, about 9,585 are in military stockpiles ready for potential use. An estimated 3,904 warheads are deployed with missiles and aircraft, marking an increase of 60 warheads compared to January 2023. The remaining warheads are in central storage.
Of the deployed warheads, around 2,100 are maintained in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles. This high-alert status ensures that these warheads can be launched at a moment’s notice. Nearly all of these high-alert warheads are controlled by Russia and the United States, although China is now believed to have placed some of its warheads on high operational alert for the first time.
MODERNIZATION EFFORTS BY NUCLEAR STATES
The United States and Russia, possessing the largest nuclear arsenals, continue to lead in the modernization of their nuclear forces. Both nations are investing heavily in new delivery systems, warhead upgrades, and advanced technological developments. This modernization includes the development of hypersonic weapons and more sophisticated missile defence systems.
China’s nuclear arsenal is undergoing significant changes, with a notable increase in the number of warheads on high operational alert. China is also developing new ballistic missiles capable of carrying multiple warheads, aligning its capabilities more closely with those of Russia and the United States.
India, Pakistan, and North Korea are actively pursuing technologies to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles. This advancement would enable these countries to dramatically increase the number of deployed warheads and enhance their deterrence capabilities.
IMPLICATIONS OF INCREASED DEPLOYMENT
The increase in operational nuclear warheads is a concerning trend that reflects a shift in global nuclear dynamics. Despite a reduction in the total number of warheads due to the dismantling of cold war-era weapons, the number of operational warheads continues to rise. SIPRI Director Dan Smith highlights this worrying development, indicating that the trend is likely to accelerate in the coming years.
The deployment of more warheads, particularly those in high operational alert, heightens the risk of nuclear conflict. The ability to launch multiple warheads from ballistic missiles increases the potential for significant destruction and escalates the stakes in any military confrontation.
THE PATH FORWARD
The international community faces the urgent task of addressing the escalating nuclear arms race. Diplomatic efforts, arms control agreements, and disarmament initiatives must be revitalized to curb the modernization and deployment of nuclear weapons.
Promoting dialogue and cooperation among nuclear-armed states is crucial. Building trust, transparency, and mutual understanding can help mitigate the risks associated with nuclear modernization and deployment.
The continued modernization and deployment of nuclear arsenals by the nine nuclear-armed states present a significant threat to global security. The increase in operational nuclear warheads, coupled with technological advancements, underscores the need for renewed international efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation and ensure strategic stability.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Rising Numbers: The global inventory of nuclear warheads is approximately 12,121, with 9,585 in military stockpiles and 3,904 deployed.
High Alert: Around 2,100 deployed warheads are on high operational alert, primarily belonging to Russia and the USA, with China joining the ranks.
Modernization Efforts: All nine nuclear-armed states are modernizing their arsenals, with significant advancements in missile technology and warhead deployment.
Strategic Risks: The increase in operational warheads and the pursuit of multiple warhead deployment by emerging nuclear powers heighten the risk of nuclear conflict.
Global Response: There is an urgent need for diplomatic efforts, arms control agreements, and international cooperation to address the escalating nuclear arms race.