Countries affected by conflict are disproportionately impacted by climate change. This double threat pushes people out of their homes, disrupts food production, cuts off supplies, amplifies diseases, and weakens healthcare services, according to a new report by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).
REPORT OVERVIEW: WHEN RAIN TURNS TO DUST
The report, titled “When Rain Turns to Dust“, is based on research in southern Iraq, northern Mali, and the interior of the Central African Republic (CAR). It explores people’s experiences with conflict and climate risks, their coping and adaptation strategies, and how inadequate support forces them to drastically change their lives, diversify livelihoods, or move away from their homes.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT INTERSECT
Of the 20 countries most vulnerable to climate change, the majority are at war. By 2050, 200 million people could need international humanitarian aid annually, double the current number.
“Climate change is cruel. While it will be felt everywhere, its most crippling effects will be borne by the world’s most vulnerable. We witness every day the impact of climate shocks and environmental degradation on conflict-affected communities. Their ability to adapt is being radically eroded by violence and instability. These shocks cost lives,” said Catherine-Lune Grayson, the ICRC’s in-house expert on climate change.
PEOPLE’S EXPERIENCES IN CONFLICT ZONES
Struggles in Mali and Iraq
In Mali and Iraq, environmental and climate factors are making life harder by threatening access to water and food, economic security, and affecting dignity as people struggle to meet their families’ needs.
Tensions in the Central African Republic
In CAR, changing human movement patterns have led to tensions between farmers and herders, exacerbated by the authorities’ limited capacity to regulate it. Communities seek help managing these tensions and support to adjust agricultural calendars, as traditional weather patterns are no longer reliable.
Coping in Northern Mali
In northern Mali, pastoralists and farmers describe how conflict has disrupted their ways of coping with repeated droughts and occasional intense rains, accelerating changes to their way of life and forcing some to move south or to cities.
Flooding in Mali and CAR
In northern Mali and CAR, recent floods have led to the loss of homes, livelihoods, and harvests. Communities ask for help to recover and ensure future floods do not make them homeless again.
Sandstorms in Iraq
In Iraq, sandstorms have dramatically increased, from fewer than 25 per year between 1950 and 1990 to around 300 in 2013. An Iraqi ICRC staff member noted, “Before, rain was falling. Now, dust is falling.”
THE NEED FOR ACTION
“Unmitigated climate change will cause the number of people in need to grow exponentially – and humanitarian organizations are already unable to meet humanitarian needs. Climate risks can lead to development reversals and systemic breakdown, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected states, which are currently most neglected by climate action,” Grayson said.
ICRC’S CALL TO ACTION
The ICRC is calling for mobilization within and beyond the humanitarian sector to ensure that climate action and finance reach conflict zones, and that the hardest-hit communities receive the support they need to adapt to a changing climate.
The intersection of conflict and climate change poses a significant threat to vulnerable communities. Addressing these dual challenges requires coordinated efforts and mobilization from various sectors to ensure that those most affected receive the necessary support and resources to adapt and thrive.
SOME TAKEAWAYS
- 200 MILLION people every year could need international humanitarian aid from 2050, a doubling compared to 2018 partly due to climate change
- 20 BILLION dollars of international funding a year may be required to respond to humanitarian needs by 2030
- 60% OF THE 20 countries considered to be most vulnerable to climate change by the ND-Gain Index are affected by armed conflict.
- Areas where climate shocks and conflict* interact to drive food crises have high to very high prevalence rates of acute malnutrition in children under the age of five: these areas include Darfur in Sudan (28 per cent), South Sudan (23 per cent) and the Lake Region of Chad (18 per cent)
- 1/3 of the world’s cropland has been abandoned in the past 40 years because of erosion. Each year an additional 20 million hectares of agricultural land either becomes too degraded for crop production or is lost to urban sprawl
- OVER 50% of the world’s population is expected to be living in water-stressed regions by 2050