About 80% of people in Africa have migrated toward rivers and urban centres in response to drought, escalating the number of individuals living in flood-prone regions. This resettlement trend, influenced by climate change-induced droughts, is anticipated to intensify, creating a cyclical impact on communities already grappling with environmental challenges, according to a new study.
Lead researcher Serena Ceola, a hydrologist at the University of Bologna, underscores the cyclical nature of this migration pattern, exacerbating the negative impacts of drought. Climate change is predicted to elevate the frequency and severity of droughts, further challenging people’s ability to find secure settlements. This prompts a paradoxical situation where individuals may move from one drought-affected area to another, or to regions posing different climate risks.
SOMALIA’S STRUGGLE
The study cites Somalia as a poignant example, where over 3.8 million people, displaced in part due to drought over three years, sought refuge near rivers for renewed agricultural activities.
Heavy rains and flash floods subsequently displaced more than half a million people, emphasizing the dual challenges faced by climate refugees.
CONTINENTAL-SCALE INSIGHT
Published in Earth’s Future, the study is groundbreaking as the first to examine changes in human settlement patterns associated with droughts on a continental scale. Prior research had focused on individual countries or specific drought events, limiting a holistic understanding of how drought influences large-scale human settlements.
DROUGHT’S WIDE-RANGING IMPACTS
While droughts may propel individuals closer to rivers for continued agriculture, others adapt by migrating to cities, offering diverse economic opportunities when agricultural activities are hampered. Drought’s influence on human displacement is complex, as it can exacerbate conflict, political violence, food insecurity, and job instability—each capable of triggering mass migrations.
METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS
The researchers used indices reflecting socioeconomic and evapotranspiration impacts of drought to identify droughts in 50 African countries from 1992 to 2013. Satellite-based nighttime light detection was employed to track settlements’ proximity to rivers, while World Bank census data monitored urban population growth. Limitations include the use of nighttime lights as a proxy for human settlements and potential underrepresentation of impoverished groups lacking visible lights.
This study underscores the urgent need for society’s awareness regarding the widespread movement of people from one climate threat to another in response to drought. As climate change continues to reshape regional climates, human settlements, and environmental risks, proactive strategies, detailed data, and governmental support are imperative to ensure sustainable development and enhance the resilience of vulnerable populations.
