Forests receiving proactive management treatments are less vulnerable to high-severity wildfire. They are 88 percent less susceptible compared to unmanaged areas. The study, published in Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, also found that treated forests can recover their carbon stocks within just seven years. This recovery occurs even after extreme droughts and megafires.
Vibrant Planet, Northern Arizona University, the American Forest Foundation, and Blue Forest conducted the research. It focused on the wildfire-prone Sierra Nevada region of California.
Findings From California’s Central Sierra
The study analyzed 216 thinning and fuel reduction projects completed in 2016 and tracked wildfire outcomes through 2023, a period marked by the state’s most destructive fires and severe droughts. Results revealed:
- Proactive treatments reduced overall wildfire severity by 32 percent.
- The occurrence of high-severity fire dropped by 88 percent in treated areas.
- By year seven, treated forests matched or exceeded untreated areas in live carbon storage, despite initial tree removal and extreme climate pressures.
Larger treatments (over six hectares) and those with follow-up maintenance, such as prescribed burns, showed the strongest resilience and carbon-stabilization benefits.
A Natural Experiment in Real-Time
Lead author Ethan Yackulic explained that the scale of recent megafires made computer modeling insufficient. Instead, the team relied on a “natural experiment” by comparing treated and untreated forests across the Sierra.
“Even though treatments have a high initial carbon cost, we saw a dramatic signal of resilience in later years,” Yackulic said. “This shows the long-term benefits of proactive management at the landscape scale.”
Restoring Balance to Fire-Adaptive Forests
Many western forests evolved with frequent, low-severity fire. But decades of suppression, combined with climate-driven megafires and drought, have left them vulnerable.
“After 130 years of fire suppression, the western US is contending with an enormous wildfire debt,” said Katharyn Duffy, senior scientist at Vibrant Planet. “It’s not a question of if these forests will burn, but when and where.”
Sophie Gilbert, Vibrant Planet’s Director of Science Strategy, emphasized that the results help answer critical questions about the scale and intensity of treatments needed to reduce risk. “Treating forests is about re-establishing humans’ reciprocal relationship with the land. With sustained effort, forests reward us with carbon storage, clean water, biodiversity, and resilience.”