The Election Commission of India has announced state assembly elections in five states: Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram. The assembly elections in these states reveal a complex political landscape with socio-economic variations. The results of these elections may not directly correlate with the coming national elections. However, they could remain pivotal for the major political players, setting the stage for significant political dynamics.
NATURE OF THE CONTEST
In these five states, elections have predominantly been a two-party contest. Whether it’s the Hindi belt states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, or Telangana and Mizoram, two major parties have consistently vied for power. The political landscape in these states is shaped by the dominance of either the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or the Congress, with exceptions such as the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana and the Mizo National Front (MNF) in Mizoram.
SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIVERSITY
Despite the political similarities, these states exhibit stark socio-economic differences. The religious composition varies significantly, with the Hindi belt states being predominantly Hindu, while Telangana and Mizoram have diverse religious populations, primarily Muslim and Christian, respectively. Even within the Hindu population, variations exist, with different caste compositions and Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) percentages.
The economic conditions of these states differ widely. Mizoram and Telangana rank higher in terms of the average asset score of their populations, while Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh lag behind, depicting higher poverty rates.
NATIONAL ELECTIONS
While state elections are closely watched, they do not necessarily predict the outcomes of national elections. The 2019 Lok Sabha results demonstrated that voters in these states can vote differently in state and national elections. The BJP, for example, secured a different outcome in state and national elections in the Hindi belt states, whereas Telangana and Mizoram remained consistent.
IMPORTANCE FOR BJP AND CONGRESS
Despite the limited predictive value for national elections, these state elections remain crucial for the BJP and the Congress. Their performance impacts the Rajya Sabha representation of these parties and influences their negotiation strength with allies ahead of the impending Lok Sabha elections. Therefore, both parties have compelling reasons to invest serious effort in these state polls.
