Nearly 8,000 animal species could come dangerously close to extinction by 2100 due to interacting effects of rising extreme heat and human-driven land-use change, warns a new study by University of Oxford’s School of Geography and the Environment.
The extensive research led by Dr Reut Vardi, published in Global Change Biology, evaluated around 30,000 terrestrial vertebrate species — amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles — to assess how their habitats and thermal tolerances will be affected by future environmental shifts.
Alarming Projections for Species’ Habitats
Dr Vardi emphasizes, “Considering multiple threats together provides a more accurate prediction of potential impacts and highlights urgent conservation needs worldwide.”
The study, ‘Effects of future climate extreme heat events and land use changes on land vertebrates’, found that by 2100, up to 7,895 species could experience extreme heat, unsuitable land use, or both across their full range. In the worst-case scenario, species might face unsuitable conditions over 52% of their habitat on average. Even the most optimistic outlook shows 10% of their range affected.
Regions such as the Sahel, Middle East, and Brazil stand out as hotspots where combined threats will be especially severe.
Vulnerable Species Most at Risk
Particularly concerning is the impact on already vulnerable groups. Over half of Data Deficient species (>77%), Near Threatened species (>50%), and threatened species (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered; >60%) may encounter unsuitable conditions across at least half of their range in two of the scenarios analyzed.
This underscores how future environmental changes could heavily reshape global biodiversity patterns, driving many species closer to extinction.
The study’s sobering findings call for urgent global action to address the dual threats of climate extremes and habitat loss. Protecting biodiversity requires integrated approaches that consider how these factors interact to shape species’ survival.
Q&A: Understanding the Research and Its Implications
Q: What main threats did the study analyze?
A: The combined impact of climate change-driven extreme heat events and human land-use changes on vertebrate species.
Q: How many species are at risk according to the study?
A: Up to 7,895 species could face habitat conditions placing them at risk of extinction by 2100.
Q: Which regions will experience the greatest pressure?
A: The Sahel, Middle East, and Brazil are highlighted as particularly vulnerable to these interacting threats.
Q: Why focus on combined threats?
A: Multiple interacting factors create more severe impacts than when considered separately, improving accuracy in assessing extinction risk.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1: Which groups of animals were studied?
A1: The study covered nearly 30,000 species of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles worldwide.
Q2: What does “unsuitable conditions” mean?
A2: Habitats where extreme heat or land-use changes reduce survival chances below species’ tolerance limits.
Q3: How does land-use change contribute to extinction risk?
A3: Habitat fragmentation, degradation, or conversion to agriculture and urban areas limits species’ living spaces.
Q4: What conservation actions are suggested?
A4: Global mitigation of climate change, habitat preservation, and integrating multiple threat factors into conservation planning.
Q5: How can this research guide future biodiversity policies?
A5: By highlighting at-risk species and regions, it helps prioritize conservation efforts and inform environmental regulations.
