If the Gaza war persists for a second month, Palestine will see a 34% increase in poverty, thrusting nearly half a million additional people into poverty, and an 8.4% drop in GDP, equating to a loss of US$1.7 billion, warns the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA.
In the assessment, the organisations said the continuation of the war comes with huge and compounding costs to all Palestinians, not only Gazans, now and in the near and medium-term future.
ESCALATING CRISIS: INITIAL ONE-MONTH IMPACTS
As the conflict reaches the one-month mark, the assessment reports a 20% rise in poverty and a 4.2% decline in GDP. The International Labour Organization estimates a loss of 390,000 jobs, indicating the immediate and profound economic repercussions of the ongoing war.
CALLS FOR HUMANITARIAN CEASEFIRE AND URGENT ASSISTANCE
UNDP joins the UN Secretary-General’s appeal for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, the release of hostages, and unrestricted humanitarian access. The assessment underscores the urgent need for humanitarian assistance to alleviate the suffering of Palestinian families and mitigate the escalating deprivation.
ALARMING RISE IN POVERTY AND ECONOMIC DECLINE
If the war continues into a second month, projections indicate a 45% surge in poverty, affecting over 660,000 people, and a 12.2% decrease in GDP, with total losses reaching US$2.5 billion. The report warns of a substantial setback in the Human Development Index, setting back development in the State of Palestine by 11 to 16 years and in Gaza by 16 to 19 years, depending on conflict intensity.
RECOVERY CHALLENGES: ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AND MASSIVE DISPLACEMENT
With nearly 1.5 million people internally displaced in Gaza and extensive destruction of homes, the assessment anticipates significant challenges in economic recovery. The report emphasizes the slow and challenging prospects for recovery, given the massive scale of displacement, destruction, and uncertain access to resources due to the ongoing siege on Gaza.
ANALYTICAL TOOLS EMPLOYED FOR COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT
The assessment utilizes various analytical tools, including rapid satellite damage appraisals, night-time light satellite imagery, and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) economic modelling. These tools enable a comprehensive simulation of the war’s impact on the entire occupied Palestinian territory, providing critical insights into the unfolding humanitarian crisis and its long-term consequences.