While the estimated total population of wild lions in Africa ranges between 20,000 and 25,000 individuals, a concerning number of them reside in small, fragmented populations that are at risk of disappearing. For instance, nearly half of the 25 African countries where lions still roam have fewer than 250 individuals, and eight of these nations have only one remaining wild lion population. What’s more, less than half of the 62 known wild African lion populations consist of over 100 lions.
New research, co-led by Oxford University’s Wildlife Conservation Research Unit (WildCRU), has brought to light alarming data concerning the declining lion populations in Africa. However, it also sheds new light on conservation strategies. Co-lead author and Director of WildCRU, Professor Amy Dickman, stated, “Lions are one of the most iconic species in the world but are undergoing devastating declines. This comprehensive analysis is the first to look at both ecological and socio-political risk factors facing lions at scale, and demonstrates the size of the challenge.”
ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIO-POLITICAL FACTORS
It’s important to note that the vulnerability of different lion populations cannot be assessed solely based on their size. For each population, the researchers identified ecological and socio-political factors that may influence their survival. Smaller lion populations or higher population densities of people and livestock, for example, contribute to higher ecological fragility, while higher levels of corruption or lower GDP per capita contribute to greater socio-political fragility. These factors were then integrated into a single overall fragility index, allowing for comparisons between lion populations.
FROM SUDAN TO BENIN: CONTRASTING FATES OF SINGLE LION POPULATIONS
The combination of these two indices revealed some interesting comparisons. For instance, both Sudan and Benin have a single known lion population with roughly the same number of lions. However, while Benin is relatively more stable and prosperous, Sudan is currently embroiled in a civil war, with millions of people fleeing the conflict. This war and instability undermine the ability of park rangers and others to ensure the survival of Sudan’s lions. While the fragility score does not determine which lion populations should receive protection or funding, it does highlight the varying ecological and anthropogenic pressures facing different populations, indicating which populations may require relatively more resources for conservation.
Professor Dickman emphasized, “Some populations may ultimately have similar fragility scores, but they are driven by different threats. Thus, while on the surface, the lone lion populations in Sudan and Benin may appear similar, they likely require different levels of investment and perhaps even different types of intervention for conservation to succeed. Pouring money into conserving Sudan’s lions may be relatively ineffective unless the socio-political factors such as the civil war are addressed first.”
HUMAN-INDUCED THREATS, HABITAT LOSS, AND CONFLICT
The future for lions and wildlife in general, appears challenging due to rapidly growing anthropogenic pressures on natural resources, particularly in Africa. Factors such as habitat loss, prey depletion, and human-wildlife conflict are increasingly pushing lions to the brink. However, there have been notable successes in conservation efforts. For instance, WildCRU has a rich history of lion conservation work in Africa, with several sites, including the Hwange and Ruaha ecosystems, where long-term engagement with conservation authorities and local communities has significantly reduced threats to lions and improved the conservation outlook for both lions and other species.
MORAL RESPONSIBILITY OF WEALTHIER NATIONS
Nevertheless, the researchers emphasize the moral responsibility of wealthier nations to make more significant contributions to lion conservation. Almost all of the remaining African lion range is within countries that rank among the poorest 25% in the world. This leaves the remaining African lions vulnerable to the challenges faced by many of the world’s poorest countries and communities. The researchers estimate that the annual costs for protecting all remaining African lions could be as high as US$3 billion.
Professor Dickman concluded, “Conservation science is crucial for guiding action, but this research underscores the invaluable role that politicians, economists, development experts, and others must play if we are to safeguard lions and other biodiversity. This should be done in ways that also promote rural development rather than hinder it.”
The study, titled “Socio-political and ecological fragility of threatened, free-ranging African lion populations,” has been published in the journal “Communications Earth & Environment.” It was co-led by WildCRU and the Endangered Wildlife Trust.