The ongoing war in Gaza has led to a dramatic drop in life expectancy. A recent study published in The Lancet confirms this. The study estimates that life expectancy in Gaza has decreased by nearly half since the conflict began in October 2023. This grim statistic underscores the devastating toll of war on public health and human life.
LIFE EXPECTANCY: A STARTLING DECLINE
Before the war, the average life expectancy in Gaza was 75.5 years. Yet, between October 2023 and September 2024, it dropped to just 40.5 years. The impact has been disproportionately severe for men and women:
- Men: Life expectancy fell from 73.6 to 35.6 years, a decrease of 51.6%., especially in Gaza.
- Women: Life expectancy declined from 77.4 to 47.5 years, a 38.6% reduction, most notably in Gaza.
SCENARIOS HIGHLIGHTING THE MAGNITUDE OF LOSS
The research team, led by Michel Guillot, a professor of sociology at the University of Pennsylvania, calculated three life expectancy scenarios due to the conditions in Gaza:
1. Central Scenario
- Based on official fatalities reported by the Gaza Ministry of Health, excluding individuals missing or buried under rubble.
- Life expectancy: 40.5 years.
2. Low Scenario
- Accounts for deaths with complete identifying information.
- Life expectancy: 44.4 years.
3. High Scenario
- Includes fatalities reported by the Ministry of Health and the lower bound of those missing or buried.
- Life expectancy: 36.1 years in Gaza.
UNDERESTIMATING THE IMPACT
The central scenario, despite its stark findings, may underestimate the actual toll in Gaza. Deaths of individuals missing or unaccounted for remain excluded. Furthermore, indirect consequences of war—like malnutrition, lack of healthcare access, and deteriorating living conditions—were not factored into the estimates.
A BROADER PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS
The figures shed light on the broader implications of the conflict in Gaza. The drastic drop in life expectancy highlights a public health catastrophe that transcends direct fatalities. The inability to access medical care, widespread displacement, and infrastructure destruction amplify the crisis.
The study was conducted by an international team of experts, including:
- Michel Guillot: Professor of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania.
- José H. C. Monteiro Da Silva: Penn Ph.D. candidate.
- Mohammed Draidi: Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, Ramallah.
- Valeria Cetorelli: UN Relief and Works Agency, Amman.
- Ismail Lubbad: UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, Beirut.