China accelerates its green energy transition by eyeing coal-to-nuclear (C2N) conversion, repurposing retiring coal plants with small modular reactors (SMRs). A groundbreaking Tsinghua University study in Engineering quantifies how this approach sidesteps asset stranding, ensures grid reliability, and cuts costs en route to carbon neutrality. Consequently, nuclear power could surge to 22% of electricity by 2060, transforming fossil legacies into clean assets.
Premature coal plant shutdowns risk stranded assets, grid instability without dispatchable power, and job losses in coal-dependent regions. Traditional renewable alone falter due to intermittency, demanding firm backups. C2N addresses these by retrofitting existing sites with nuclear tech, particularly flexible SMRs, maintaining infrastructure while slashing emissions.
Researchers enhanced a provincial-resolution power model, integrating C2N constraints and diverse nuclear classifications. This reveals inland nuclear expansion could hit 422 GW by 2060 under carbon goals, powering 18% of demand. Thus, C2N emerges as a pragmatic bridge to a non-fossil future.
Scenario Insights: Nuclear Boom Unleashed
Three scenarios project C2N’s impact: baseline growth yields 422 GW nuclear; moderate C2N adds 13% capacity; aggressive rollout boosts 23%, hitting 22% electricity share. Northwest provinces, rich in coal relics, lead SMR deployments across 28 regions without greenfield dominance.
Renewable curtailment stays below 7%, preserving grid balance amid solar-wind ramps. Flexible SMRs complement intermittents, displacing fossil peakers. As a result, nuclear proliferates efficiently, unlocking sites previously eyed for retirement.
Economic Wins and Cost Savings
C2N delivers 0.22-0.69% system-wide savings (0.44-1.39 trillion CNY) from 2030-2060 versus no-C2N paths. Leveraged coal infrastructure trims new-build investments; optimized ops favor SMR flexibility over fuels. These gains offset transition costs, proving C2N’s viability for coal-heavy economies.
Key C2N Facts and Projections
Capacity Surge: 13-23% nuclear growth via repowering, reaching 22% supply share.
Regional Reach: Enables deployment in 28 provinces, northwest focus.
Grid Reliability: Curtailment <7%; dispatchable power ensures stability.
Savings Scale: Up to 1.39 trillion CNY cumulative by 2060.
Q&A: Coal-to-Nuclear Breakdown
Q: What is coal-to-nuclear (C2N) conversion?
A: Repowering retired coal plants with nuclear, especially SMRs, reusing sites and grids for clean firm power.
Q: How much nuclear growth does C2N enable?
A: 13-23% capacity increase, pushing nuclear to 22% of China’s electricity by 2060.
Q: Does C2N compromise grid stability?
A: No—maintains balanced mix, caps renewable waste at 7%, adds flexible dispatchables.
Q: Why prioritize northwest provinces?
A: Abundant coal legacies suit SMR retrofits, accelerating decarbonization there.
FAQ: Power Transition Guide
What challenges does C2N solve?
Stranded assets, grid gaps, just transitions—repurposes infrastructure sustainably.
How do costs compare without C2N?
Saves 0.44-1.39 trillion CNY by 2060 through site reuse and ops optimization.
Role of small modular reactors (SMRs)?
Provide flexibility, fitting coal footprints for faster, cheaper inland rollout.
What policies support C2N?
Protect greenfield sites, pilot projects, component manufacturing, R&D for cost cuts.
Can other nations adopt this model?
Yes—ideal for coal-reliant grids facing similar decarbonization pressures.
C2N charts a cost-smart path for China’s dual-carbon ambitions, inspiring global coal transitions. Policymakers must champion pilots and tech to harness this nuclear renaissance effectively.
