The South Asian security landscape is undergoing a significant transformation as Bangladesh moves to establish domestic Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) manufacturing through a high-level defence partnership with China. This initiative, recently cleared by Bangladesh’s interim administration, marks a decisive shift from traditional arms procurement toward long-term defence-industrial collaboration.
By integrating Chinese technology directly into its military ecosystem, Dhaka is positioning itself for greater self-reliance. However, this move also introduces new strategic variables into a region already grappling with shifting alliances and the broader “unravelling” of global security frameworks.
The BAF-CETC Agreement: A New Era of Production
The formal foundation for this project was laid on 27 January, when the Bangladesh Air Force (BAF) signed a comprehensive agreement with the China Electronics Technology Group Corporation International (CETC). Held at the Dhaka Cantonment, the signing ceremony highlighted the institutional depth of this partnership.
According to official statements from the Bangladesh defence ministry, the collaboration focuses on:
- Joint Manufacturing: Setting up facilities to produce and assemble “state-of-the-art” UAVs.
- Technology Transfer: A commitment from the Chinese side to share technical expertise.
- Operational Independence: Capacity-building measures designed to help Bangladesh eventually manufacture these platforms without external aid.
Advanced Capabilities: From MALE to VTOL Platforms
The production pipeline is set to follow a phased approach, initially focusing on two critical categories of drones:
1. Medium Altitude Low Endurance (MALE) Drones: These are essential for sustained surveillance and reconnaissance missions.
2. Vertical Take-off and Landing (VTOL) Platforms: These offer versatility in deployment, especially in regions with limited runway infrastructure.
While these systems are destined for military use, the Bangladeshi government has heavily emphasised their humanitarian and disaster management applications. Given the country’s vulnerability to natural disasters, locally produced UAVs could provide a vital lifeline for rapid response and search-and-rescue operations.
Regional Implications and India’s Strategic Watch
The scale of this project has not gone unnoticed in New Delhi. Indian strategists interpret the move as part of a broader regional pattern where Beijing embeds its technology and personnel within the military structures of neighbouring states.
Furthermore, the location of these facilities near India’s eastern and northeastern frontiers raises concerns regarding a “long-term operational presence” for China in the region. Rather than simple one-off equipment sales, this deal represents a deeper integration that could alter the balance of power in South Asia.
Meet the XY-I: A Versatile MALE Drone
While official sources remain tight-lipped about the exact models, industry analysts and multiple reports point to the XY-I, a sophisticated Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) drone, as the primary candidate for production.
The XY-I first garnered international attention at Airshow China 2022. Observers immediately noted its striking design similarities to Turkey’s renowned Bayraktar TB2, featuring a blended wing body and a distinctive inverted V-tail. However, the XY-I distinguishes itself with a unique two-blade pusher propeller engine layout.
Developed by CETC, the XY-I is engineered for a broad spectrum of operations, offering:
- All-Day Endurance: Designed for persistent presence over mission areas.
- Autonomous Flight: Capable of full autonomous navigation and operation.
- Interchangeable Payloads: The airframe supports a “rapidly interchangeable” array of equipment, including electro-optical sensors, communications modules, and electronic warfare kits.
Operational Roles: From Border Patrol to Strike Missions
The XY-I is not merely a surveillance tool; it is a multi-role platform designed to function in both civilian and military capacities. According to CETC, the drone is intended to support:
- Intelligence and Reconnaissance: Sustained surveillance for border patrol and internal security.
- Electronic Warfare (EW): Providing communications support and disruption capabilities in contested environments.
- Precision Strike: The platform is capable of carrying offensive weapons, such as bombs and air-to-surface missiles, allowing it to transition from a scout to an attacker.
Beyond the physical airframe, analysts highlight CETC’s expertise in advanced defence electronics. By leveraging sensor fusion and secure data links, Bangladesh could integrate these UAVs into a network-centric operational environment. This ensures the drones do not act as isolated units but as interconnected components of a modern battlespace.
Deepening the China-Bangladesh Defence Footprint
This manufacturing deal is a qualitative leap in a relationship where China has long been Bangladesh’s primary arms supplier. To put the scale into perspective, between 2019 and 2023, Bangladesh accounted for 11 per cent of all Chinese global arms exports.
The UAV project sits alongside other major military acquisitions, including:
• Submarines and Surface Combatants: Enhancing naval reach.
• J-10C “Vigorous Dragon” Fighters: The BAF is reportedly in final negotiations for a $2.2 billion deal to acquire 20 of these multi-role jets to replace ageing MiG-29 and F-7 aircraft.
Strategic Hub and Interdependence
For Beijing, establishing a manufacturing facility in Bangladesh serves a dual purpose. Geographically, Bangladesh acts as a central hub with the potential to service South, Southeast, and West Asian markets.
Furthermore, this move transitions the relationship from simple sales to defence-industrial integration. By embedding Chinese technology and production standards into Bangladesh’s military planning, Beijing ensures a long-term, interdependent partnership that complements its broader Belt and Road infrastructure investments
India’s Growing Concerns Over the Bangladesh-China Drone Deal
The recent announcement that Bangladesh will establish a domestic Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) manufacturing facility with Chinese assistance has sent ripples through the corridors of power in New Delhi. While Dhaka frames the initiative as a step toward self-reliance and disaster management, Indian policymakers view the development through a much more cautious lens.
Given the shared 4,096-kilometre land border and the proximity of the project to India’s sensitive northeastern corridor, the deal introduces a new level of strategic complexity to South Asian security.
The Surveillance Threat: Eyes in the Sky
The primary concern for Indian officials revolves around the capabilities of the aircraft being produced. As noted in recent reports, the likely candidate for production is the XY-I, a Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) drone. These platforms are designed for long-endurance missions, meaning they can stay airborne for extended periods to conduct:
- Electronic Intelligence-Gathering: Capturing sensitive data and signals close to Indian airspace.
- Enhanced Reconnaissance: Providing high-resolution surveillance of border movements.
- Strategic Monitoring: Observations of regions along the Indian border that were previously difficult to monitor constantly.
Consequently, the potential for armed UAVs to operate so close to sensitive border areas has added a layer of apprehension to India’s military planning.
The “String of Pearls” and Regional Encirclement
Indian strategists often interpret China’s regional activities through the “String of Pearls” framework. This theory describes Beijing’s incremental strategy to encircle India by establishing a network of military and commercial facilities across South Asia and the Indian Ocean.
In this context, the Bay of Bengal is no longer seen as a peripheral area but as a core node in China’s evolving Indo-Pacific defence diplomacy. By embedding its technology and personnel within the Bangladeshi military ecosystem, Beijing achieves several goals:
1. Deepened Influence: Establishing a drone facility allows China to gain greater access to the Bangladeshi armed forces.
2. Strategic Interdependence: Long-term manufacturing deals create a reliance on Chinese parts, maintenance, and technical expertise.
3. Intelligence Synergy: There are growing fears that intelligence gathered by these drones could serve broader Chinese military objectives in the region.
A Shift in Diplomacy: The 2025 Beijing Visit
The political climate in Dhaka has also shifted significantly following the change of power in 2024. Under interim leader Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh has notably accelerated its engagement with China. This recalibration reached a peak during Yunus’s March 2025 visit to Beijing, where multi-billion-dollar agreements were signed.
This shift marks a departure from previous balances, as Dhaka moves from being a simple purchaser of equipment—such as the reported $2.2 billion deal for J-10C fighter jets—to a partner in high-tech defence industrialisation.
The Global Context: A World Without Limits
This regional tension is unfolding against a backdrop of crumbling global security. As the New START treaty between the US and Russia expires, leaving the world’s largest nuclear powers without binding limits, nations like India and China are increasingly looking to advanced technology as a primary deterrent. The rise of hypersonic missiles and autonomous UAVs signifies a new, more volatile era of military competition where traditional arms control measures are failing to keep pace.
Q&A: Key Insights into the UAV Deal
Why is Bangladesh choosing to manufacture drones instead of buying them? The goal is self-reliance. By producing UAVs domestically, Bangladesh reduces its dependence on foreign suppliers and builds its own technical industrial base, which can support both military and civilian disaster relief efforts.
What makes the Chinese involvement unique compared to previous deals? Historically, Bangladesh purchased equipment. This deal involves technology transfer and local assembly, meaning Chinese experts and technology will be embedded within the Bangladesh Air Force’s infrastructure for the long term.
How do these drones compare to those used by other world powers? The facility will produce MALE and VTOL platforms, which are modern standards for surveillance. However, they are part of a wider global race that includes hypersonic missiles (capable of speeds over 4,000 mph) and nuclear-powered undersea torpedoes like Russia’s Poseidon.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: When was the agreement signed? A: The deal was officially signed on 27 January at the Bangladesh Air Force headquarters.
Q: Will these drones be used for combat? A: While the ministry has highlighted humanitarian assistance and disaster management, it also confirmed they will be used for military missions.
Q: Does this affect the New START treaty? A: While not directly linked, the UAV deal reflects the “growing salience of nuclear weapons” and advanced military tech in a world where major treaties like New START are expiring, leaving nations to seek their own advanced deterrents.
Q: Is China the only country Bangladesh is working with? A: This specific UAV facility is a partnership with China’s CETC, though the US and Russia remain key players in the broader global arms landscape.