A recent study has revealed a disturbing picture of African elephant population trends, with large-scale declines observed across the continent over the last five decades. From 1964 to 2016, forest elephant populations have dropped by a staggering 90%. Meanwhile, savanna elephants have decreased by 70% on average. The study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences analyzes data from 475 sites across 37 African countries. This provides the most detailed look to date at the status of African elephants.
ALARMING DECLINE AMIDST SOME SUCCESS STORIES
The study found that the decline was not uniform. While certain populations were entirely wiped out, some areas showed signs of population growth and stability. Professor George Wittemyer of Colorado State University, a key contributor to the study and chair of the Save the Elephants scientific board, stressed the importance of analyzing these success stories to develop targeted conservation strategies.
“The context and solutions can vary greatly depending on the region,” Wittemyer noted. “In places where effective management is in place, the mammal populations can be stabilized and even thrive. These success stories offer valuable insights into locally-tailored conservation strategies.”
A TREND TOWARD DECLINE: A LOOK AT THE METHODS
The research employed site-level density modeling to assess elephant numbers, a more practical approach than attempting precise counts. This approach became necessary because the survey areas changed over time. These changes were due to alterations in protected land boundaries and logistical challenges. The methodology enabled researchers to create a detailed picture of population trends across the continent. It was effective even in areas with sparse data.
“We captured trends at each survey site. This allowed us to compare results across various regions,” explained Charles Edwards, a co-author of the study and researcher with CEscape consultancy services. “Understanding these regional variations is key to targeted conservation.”
MEASURING POPULATION TRENDS: A DAUNTING CHALLENGE
Despite their size, elephants are difficult to count across Africa’s vast and diverse landscapes. Surveys for savanna elephants typically need spotters in planes, while forest elephants, hidden beneath thick canopies, are counted on foot. Each survey requires significant resources, precise planning, and high levels of organization. Drone technology is not yet advanced enough for extensive surveys, adding another layer of complexity to the already challenging task.
Africa is three times the size of the United States. Each country has unique wildlife management policies. They have different political structures and conservation priorities. This fragmented approach means some regions conduct regular surveys, while others remain largely unmonitored. Survey teams often use well-documented areas as references for nearby regions. Data in these regions is incomplete. This helps them estimate trends even with limited information.
REGIONAL DIFFERENCES: NORTHERN AFRICA’S DECIMATION VS. SOUTHERN AFRICA’S GROWTH
The study highlights striking regional differences in elephant population trends. In the Sahel region of northern Africa, ongoing conflicts have decimated elephant populations, making conservation nearly impossible. In eastern and central Africa, ivory poaching has caused a decline in elephant populations. Rapid human population growth and expanding development have also contributed to this decrease in elephant numbers.
In contrast, some southern African countries, particularly Botswana, have managed to sustain and even increase their elephant populations. Strong protection measures are in place in these areas. Sustainable wildlife management practices have fostered a positive environment for elephants. This offers hope that similar models could be implemented elsewhere on the continent.
CONSERVATION FUNDING: A LIMITED RESOURCE NEEDING PRECISE ALLOCATION
The findings emphasize that understanding the status of African elephants on a continental scale is essential for smart conservation planning. Identifying regions with stable or growing populations helps conservationists focus their efforts and use funds more effectively. This strategy maximizes the impact of limited resources. This comprehensive assessment offers a roadmap for managing and protecting Africa’s remaining elephant populations.
“The overall story may be one of decline, but we’re also seeing long-term stability in some places,” Wittemyer remarked. “With targeted conservation, we have a chance to protect elephants in multiple regions, though sadly, not everywhere.”