The world temperature will continue to warm over the next five years and may even rise to more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to World Meteorological Organization *WMO).
In its decadal predictions, the WMO said that annual global temperature is likely to be at least 1°C warmer than preindustrial levels in each of the coming five years and likely to be within the range 0.91 – 1.59°C.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DECADAL PREDICTIOS
- large land areas in the Northern Hemisphere are likely to be over 0.8°C warmer than the recent past (defined as the 1981-2010 average) in 2020
- The Arctic is likely to have warmed by more than twice as much as the global mean in 2020
- The smallest temperature change is expected in the tropics and in the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere
- Many parts of South America, Southern Africa and Australia are likely to be dryer in 2020 than the recent past
- Over 2020-2024, almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans are likely to be warmer than the recent past
- Over 2020-2024, high latitude regions and the Sahel are likely to be wetter than the recent past whereas northern and eastern parts of South America are likely to be dryer
- Over 2020-2024, sea-level pressure anomalies suggest that the northern North Atlantic region could have stronger westerly winds leading to more storms in western Europe
Further, the WMO said that sea level pressure was anomalously low in both Polar Regions, with strongest negative anomalies over Antarctica in the last five years. It said that most of Eurasia, central Africa and eastern USA was wetter than average. Moreover, southern Africa, Indonesia, eastern Australia, western Europe and north-east Brazil were drier than average, the WMO said. .
Though the predictions show an increase in temperature, the WMO said that the coronavirus lockdown was likely to cause changes in emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols. The impact of changes in greenhouse gases is likely small, the reduction in anthropogenic aerosols is likely to increase global mean temperatures by less than 0.1°C, they said.
